The Atlanta Hawks have earned their playoff berth and playoff seeding this season. Unlike last season, no one can say that they backed into the 2009 playoffs. This team is firmly entrenched as the 4th best team in the Eastern Conference.
I wrote a breakdown of the player matchups for the Hawks versus Miami Heat playoff series about three weeks ago. Nothing really has changed in my thinking. Any 5th grader that follows the NBA knows that the main key to this series is Dwayne Wade and how the Hawks decide to try to attack him defensively. Without Wade, the Heat are a lottery team. He should finish second to Lebron James in the NBA MVP voting.
However, the Hawks clearly have a better 8 man rotation than the Heat. The Hawks also have the benefit of playing in the playoffs last year. The problem for the Hawks is that an NBA playoff series can be dominated by one player. If Wade goes off for 50+ points in Game 1 and the Heat win in Philips Arena, the Hawks will be facing their toughest challenge in a season filled with adversity.
To beat the Heat, the Hawks have to answer 5 key questions:
1. What is the injury status of Marvin Williams? The former second overall pick in the NBA draft is in his contract year. He elevated his game this year on both ends of the floor. His three point shooting and defensive efforts were essential to the Hawks’ quick start to the season.
However, Marvin’s back is out of whack. He has not played much in the past six weeks. I have been arguing for him to come off the bench since last summer. If he can score off the bench, use his length to bother the Heat’s Michael Beasley, and rebound, the Hawks should win this series.
2. Can Jermaine O’Neal be a low post scoring option for the Heat? The Al Horford vs. Jermaine O’Neal match up in the low post is very intriguing. Most of the time playoff basketball slows down and the offense has to rely more on set plays. The Heat need to generate some easy baskets in the post by getting the ball to O’Neal. Horford will have to guard him in the post.
I like Horford’s energy and defensive intensity. He has to push O’Neal off the block and make him shoot face up jumpers. If O’Neal can spin into the lane and shoot short hook shots, the Hawks are in trouble. The Hawks cannot afford to try to double in the post and take away Wade on the perimeter. If O’Neal reaches the 20 point mark in a game, the Heat probably win.
On the other hand, the Hawks need to establish Horford on the block on the offensive end. He has been inconsistent this season with his post moves. If he is aggressive, “The Boss” should be able to score on O’Neal who likely will play behind in the post and let Horford catch the ball on the block.
3. Which version of Josh Smith shows up for this series? Since the Marvin Williams injury, Smith has started to play good basketball. He is doing the little things and he is scoring and rebounding. His defense is better. He has taken charges and played the passing lanes. He has kept his man from penetrating for the most part. J-Smoove also has become a playmaker. He is an above average passer who delivers the ball to perimeter shooters on the money. Guys can just catch the pass and shoot.
Smith seems to have realized that he can score 30 points in a game if he takes the ball to the basket and makes his free throws. He occasionally jacks up a terrible jump shot, but those miscues have become fewer and fewer. My problem with J-Smoove has been that for every good thing on the court he does a bad thing. If he makes more positive plays than negative, the Hawks can beat the Heat and challenge the Cavs in Round 2.
4. Can Mike Bibby continue to make big shots at the end of games? Bibby has been a rock for Hawks coach Mike Woodson this season. The other night I watched him direct the offense and call out plays at the end of a crucial Hawks win. Plus, all year long, Bibby has made clutch 3 point shots at the end of games.
The Heat defense should focus on Joe Johnson in end of game situations. Johnson was dynamite in last year’s playoffs and scored repeatedly on the Boston Celtics in the 4th quarter of games. This year he has Bibby to pass to for the open jump shot. It is possible that Bibby will have 3-4 shots in this series that will decide games. I hope that he makes them.
5. Can the Hawks slow down Dwayne Wade? Wade cannot be stopped, but he can be contained. Hold him to 30 and make him earn those points by not giving up dunks and lay-ups. Slow down the Heat’s transition game by scoring on the offensive end.
I have been critical of the Hawks’ defensive approach to guarding the screen and roll play all season. There are probably about 12 ways to guard this play, but the Hawks seem to only switch the play. Switching works if the offensive player with the ball is hesitant to attack the bigger defender off the dribble. D-Wade will not have that problem. He will attack the Hawk Bigs, score, and probably get fouled.
The Hawks have to mix up how they guard the screen and roll depending on the players involved. If Jermaine O’Neal is coming to set the screen for D-Wade, the Hawks should double Wade. Make him give the ball up to O’Neal on the perimeter. O’Neal can make the outside shot, but can the Heat beat you with him shooting jumpers? I don’t think so.
If Udonis Haslem is coming to set the screen, the Hawks do their normal switch. I think that Josh Smith is athletic enough to guard Wade on some possessions. If Smith focuses, gets into a defensive stance, and gives Wade a step, Smith can keep Wade from getting all the way to the basket. Smith could force him into taking jump shots off the dribble with a hand in his face.
Of all the playoff matchups in the Eastern Conference, this series shapes up as the most competitive. It looks like it will be the superstar player leading his team versus a deeper, more veteran Hawks’ squad. My prediction is that the Hawks with home court advantage will win this series in seven games.
Over the last couple of days, I have been taking another look at the 2007 NBA draft. During that draft, I wanted GM Billy Knight to take a point guard first and then a big man with the #11 pick. Maybe, pick a Mike Conley and Spencer Hawes combination. Knight went in another direction and took Al Horford and Acie Law. With some hindsight, it would have been one of the great drafts of the last ten years if Knight would have taken Rodney Stuckey with the 11th pick instead of Law; but the Horford pick has set the tone for this franchise. Horford’s stellar play last season (he should have been 2008 Rookie of the Year) raised expectations enough that the Atlanta Spirit Group signed off on the trade for Mike Bibby. Getting Mike Bibby has set the stage for the Hawks to become a respectable team this season, and possibly a great team over the next five years.
Something special must have happened to Billy Knight on Valentine’s Day last year. He must have had a great meal in Buckhead or called Bibby’s father and asked him about Mike’s health. You have to give him credit for stealing Bibby from the Kings. On February 16, the Hawks traded Shelden Williams, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Lorenzen Wright, and a 2008 second-round draft pick to Sacramento for Mike Bibby. With the 42nd pick, the Kings drafted Sean Singletary and then traded him to Houston with Ron Artest for Bobby Jackson and some loose change. The Rockets promptly traded Singletary to the Phoenix Suns for D.J. Strawberry. At this point, no players selected after Singletary really have made an impact in the NBA. Is Bibby really worth five players? Yes, with these five guys, you could have kicked in Salim Stoudamire, Mario West, and a hamburger franchise and still came out ahead.
Although the Hawks have had some injuries and adversity, they are 11-6. This team is in better shape than a bunch of other teams. Bibby is a big reason why. He is a veteran presence that is providing a quiet leadership for this team. His 3 point shooting has been invaluable and the great shooting has spread like a good plague to some teammates. The Hawks are leading the NBA in 3 point percentage shooting. Last night against Memphis, Bibby was clutch in the 4th quarter. He is not afraid to take and make big shots. He also has been more of a playmaker and assist man than I thought he could be this year. He is healthy and has been able to penetrate and beat his man, because everybody is flying out to challenge the jump shot. Okay, I have been railing about his defense all year. It is true that Bibby has trouble guarding the elite point guards, but how many of those are there in the Association? Six? You don’t think that the Miami Heat would not kill for Bibby right now. Yeah, they are playing Chris Quinn in the 4th quarter with the game on the line.
If Bibby stays healthy, the Hawks are in good shape. He is only 30 years old, but has been in the NBA since 1998. His body is pretty old. The Hawks will make the playoffs. The drop off to Acie Law and Flip Murray is like dropping off a cliff. Flip Murray could run the point, but he does not want to--he is a score and shoot first guy. Acie is serviceable. Here is the dilemma for GM Rick Sund. Keep Bibby, have a great year, maybe win a playoff series, and lose him in free agency; or on the other hand, trade Bibby to a contender for a proven point guard with another skill set, a high draft pick, or a couple of up and coming role players. In February or March, Bibby might be worth a 1st round draft pick to a team like the Lakers, Jazz, or Spurs.
I want Sund to keep Bibby and make a run this year. If Bibby walks, Sund can use that money on the free agent market. The problem is if you let him go for nothing, who knows if the ASG is going let you use part of Bibby’s money to sign someone. They might just pocket the playoff profits. I have not looked at the salaries, but what if the Lakers offered Sasha Vulacic and Luke Walton for Bibby. That is the kind of deal that will be hard for Sund to pass up. You can then move Walton or Marvin Williams for a point guard of the future.
Bibby is the key to the Hawks’ season and to the future of the franchise. The team is solid and good if not great. The Hawks can beat anyone on any given night this season. I cannot wait until the NBA season really starts to heat up after the New Year. And, I have not even starting thinking about how the Hawks’ can clear enough cap space to sign Dwayne Wade in 2010.
Here is something you might not know about Mike Bibby:
The Hawks’ #10 has a MLB pedigree. Bibby’s uncle, Jim Bibby, was a professional baseball player with 111 major league victories. He was an important pitcher for the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates of 1979 and a National League All-Star selection in 1980. Bibby threw a no hitter in 1973 as a member of the Texas Rangers. In maybe a more amazing game against your Atlanta Braves in 1981, Bibby gave up a lead off single and then proceeded to retire the next 27 batters in order—as close to a perfect game as you can pitch.
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