1. Mo and Flip have to play big. If Marvin Williams does not play, the Hawks are going with a 7 man rotation. Mo in the starting line up and Flip off the bench. These guys were picked up in August by GM Rick Sund and few in this town paid any attention (check my blog I was calling for the Evans signing before he signed). The combination is averaging almost 15 ppg in this series. Tonight, they both need to score in double figures.
2. The Hawks have to get to the foul line and convert. A high number of free throw attempts means that you are getting shots in the paint either on drives to the basket, transition cuts, or post moves. Atlanta is averaging 24 attempts per game from the line on 71% shooting. They need to get to the foul line 35 times tonight and shoot a high percentage.
3. Mike Bibby has to get more open 3 point shot attempts.. He is attempting under 5 shots per game from 3 point land in this playoff series. I do not think he is being aggressive enough on offensive end. Granted the Heat are keying on him with Mario Chalmers and Chalmers does not ever have to double team anyone in the post. The Hawks need to look for Bibby on quick kick outs after offensive rebounds. Bibby must be more aggressive and call his own number more tonight.
4. Al Horford must step up. Horford is highly respected in basketball circles all around the country. He is looked at as the next great power forward for USA basketball. The problem is that Jermaine O’Neal has exposed him as an under sized center who has trouble guarding a bigger player. Horford has to get physical on the offensive end. He has to attack the basket. He has to match Zaza Pachulia’s energy. Horford is averaging 2 offensive rebounds per game in this series. Tonight, he needs to man up and get about 6 offensive rebounds and convert them into scores.
5. Will the real Joe Johnson please stand up? Forget about his low scoring numbers. In the regular season, Super Joe averaged almost 6 assists versus 2.5 turnovers per game. Those numbers are close to being reversed against the Heat. Johnson needs to be a playmaker and let the offense come to him. When the Heat double him on the perimeter, he needs to attack the double and create open shots for teammates. The Hawks bigs, especially Josh Smith and Horford, need to cut to open areas and to the basket for easy scores. I have a great feeling the JJ is going to play his best game of the series tonight and lead the Hawks to a 3-2 series advantage.
Hopefully, Mike Woodson and his coaching staff have been able to bring the soaring Hawks back down to Earth after Sunday’s big win. The city is buzzing about this team and the danger is that the players just show up and expect to beat the Heat again. Some people are even talking about a sweep which is ridiculous. The Hawks need to understand that they are going to face a much different Miami Heat team on Wednesday night in Game 2.
For starters, the Heat’s young players should come out with a better idea of intensity needed to compete in the playoffs and of the noise level in Philips Arena. Last year, a veteran team like the Celtics was rattled in the Hawks home arena, so the Heat’s struggles were not unprecedented. Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, and company should all be better on Wednesday night.
Secondly, Dwayne Wade clearly was rusty from his week long lay off. The Hawks defense has done a solid job on Wade all season, but he did play up to his normal standards. I like the way the Hawks forwards helped Joe and Mo Evans by challenging every one of Wade's attempts. Undoubtedly, Wade is going to be on a mission in Game 2.
The Heat are sure to run more screen and roll on the wing to try and get him into the middle of the floor. I also see Coach Spoelstra running some zipper cut action to get Wade the ball at the top of the floor. I would actually not bring the screener in this case and let Wade work one on one. The Heat could flatten out their offense to a 1-4 low set with 3 point shooters in the corners.
Finally, the best feature of the Hawks' win on Sunday was their unselfish play on the offenive end of the floor. The Hawks were very focused on the offensive end. The ball movement reminded me of that great stretch of home games in December.
Clearly, Coach Woodson had a game plan to attack the Miami Heat inside. Smith, Horford, and Zaza had opportunities in the paint early in the game. Getting alley oop dunks, easy post scores, and offensive put backs opened up the outside shooting for the Hawks perimeter players.
The Hawks have the experience not to look beyone Game 2. Stay focused on the task at hand. Offensively, they have to stick to their game plan. Defensively, they need to be ready for an all out assault from D-Wade. Wade might take over 30 shots in this game. The Hawks defense on Wade is the key. If Wade responds with an all around monster game with a near triple-double, the Hawks are in trouble and the Heat can steal a game at the Highlight Factory.
The Atlanta Hawks have earned their playoff berth and playoff seeding this season. Unlike last season, no one can say that they backed into the 2009 playoffs. This team is firmly entrenched as the 4th best team in the Eastern Conference.
I wrote a breakdown of the player matchups for the Hawks versus Miami Heat playoff series about three weeks ago. Nothing really has changed in my thinking. Any 5th grader that follows the NBA knows that the main key to this series is Dwayne Wade and how the Hawks decide to try to attack him defensively. Without Wade, the Heat are a lottery team. He should finish second to Lebron James in the NBA MVP voting.
However, the Hawks clearly have a better 8 man rotation than the Heat. The Hawks also have the benefit of playing in the playoffs last year. The problem for the Hawks is that an NBA playoff series can be dominated by one player. If Wade goes off for 50+ points in Game 1 and the Heat win in Philips Arena, the Hawks will be facing their toughest challenge in a season filled with adversity.
To beat the Heat, the Hawks have to answer 5 key questions:
1. What is the injury status of Marvin Williams? The former second overall pick in the NBA draft is in his contract year. He elevated his game this year on both ends of the floor. His three point shooting and defensive efforts were essential to the Hawks’ quick start to the season.
However, Marvin’s back is out of whack. He has not played much in the past six weeks. I have been arguing for him to come off the bench since last summer. If he can score off the bench, use his length to bother the Heat’s Michael Beasley, and rebound, the Hawks should win this series.
2. Can Jermaine O’Neal be a low post scoring option for the Heat? The Al Horford vs. Jermaine O’Neal match up in the low post is very intriguing. Most of the time playoff basketball slows down and the offense has to rely more on set plays. The Heat need to generate some easy baskets in the post by getting the ball to O’Neal. Horford will have to guard him in the post.
I like Horford’s energy and defensive intensity. He has to push O’Neal off the block and make him shoot face up jumpers. If O’Neal can spin into the lane and shoot short hook shots, the Hawks are in trouble. The Hawks cannot afford to try to double in the post and take away Wade on the perimeter. If O’Neal reaches the 20 point mark in a game, the Heat probably win.
On the other hand, the Hawks need to establish Horford on the block on the offensive end. He has been inconsistent this season with his post moves. If he is aggressive, “The Boss” should be able to score on O’Neal who likely will play behind in the post and let Horford catch the ball on the block.
3. Which version of Josh Smith shows up for this series? Since the Marvin Williams injury, Smith has started to play good basketball. He is doing the little things and he is scoring and rebounding. His defense is better. He has taken charges and played the passing lanes. He has kept his man from penetrating for the most part. J-Smoove also has become a playmaker. He is an above average passer who delivers the ball to perimeter shooters on the money. Guys can just catch the pass and shoot.
Smith seems to have realized that he can score 30 points in a game if he takes the ball to the basket and makes his free throws. He occasionally jacks up a terrible jump shot, but those miscues have become fewer and fewer. My problem with J-Smoove has been that for every good thing on the court he does a bad thing. If he makes more positive plays than negative, the Hawks can beat the Heat and challenge the Cavs in Round 2.
4. Can Mike Bibby continue to make big shots at the end of games? Bibby has been a rock for Hawks coach Mike Woodson this season. The other night I watched him direct the offense and call out plays at the end of a crucial Hawks win. Plus, all year long, Bibby has made clutch 3 point shots at the end of games.
The Heat defense should focus on Joe Johnson in end of game situations. Johnson was dynamite in last year’s playoffs and scored repeatedly on the Boston Celtics in the 4th quarter of games. This year he has Bibby to pass to for the open jump shot. It is possible that Bibby will have 3-4 shots in this series that will decide games. I hope that he makes them.
5. Can the Hawks slow down Dwayne Wade? Wade cannot be stopped, but he can be contained. Hold him to 30 and make him earn those points by not giving up dunks and lay-ups. Slow down the Heat’s transition game by scoring on the offensive end.
I have been critical of the Hawks’ defensive approach to guarding the screen and roll play all season. There are probably about 12 ways to guard this play, but the Hawks seem to only switch the play. Switching works if the offensive player with the ball is hesitant to attack the bigger defender off the dribble. D-Wade will not have that problem. He will attack the Hawk Bigs, score, and probably get fouled.
The Hawks have to mix up how they guard the screen and roll depending on the players involved. If Jermaine O’Neal is coming to set the screen for D-Wade, the Hawks should double Wade. Make him give the ball up to O’Neal on the perimeter. O’Neal can make the outside shot, but can the Heat beat you with him shooting jumpers? I don’t think so.
If Udonis Haslem is coming to set the screen, the Hawks do their normal switch. I think that Josh Smith is athletic enough to guard Wade on some possessions. If Smith focuses, gets into a defensive stance, and gives Wade a step, Smith can keep Wade from getting all the way to the basket. Smith could force him into taking jump shots off the dribble with a hand in his face.
Of all the playoff matchups in the Eastern Conference, this series shapes up as the most competitive. It looks like it will be the superstar player leading his team versus a deeper, more veteran Hawks’ squad. My prediction is that the Hawks with home court advantage will win this series in seven games.
After watching the Atlanta Hawks play two tough games this weekend, I am giving the Hawks the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. I know it seems early with around 20 games left to play, but I have confidence that with a healthy Mike Bibby and a long home stand, the Hawks are going to finish the season on a positive note.
If Bibby plays and the Hawks stay healthy, their 8 man rotation is pretty good. The Hawks’ 3 point shooting in Philips Arena and their defensive intensity are the big keys for this team.
Okay, pencil in the Hawks as the 4 seed in the playoffs. The scary part for Atlanta is that they might have to play the Detroit Pistons in the first round. Without Allen Iverson, the Pistons scored big road victories over Orlando and Boston this weekend.
The Hawks match up much better with the Miami Heat. The Heat's Dwayne Wade is the best player and most explosive offensive threat on these three teams, but the Pistons present so many more match up problems for Atlanta in a playoff series.
Here is a preview of the players going head to head if the Hawks have to face the Pistons in the 1st round of the playoffs:
Mike Bibby vs. Rodney Stuckey
The Hawks have been struggling during this stretch when Bibby has been hurt and sick. Without Bibby, the Hawks can make the playoffs, but they can forget about doing any damage in the 1st round. Bibby is the better shooter and passer than Stuckey, but Stuckey is younger and much more physical.
Stuckey still is learning the point guard position, but he is a physical guard that can get to the basket. If the Pistons decide to clear out and let Stuckey operate one on one against Bibby, the Hawks are in trouble. Stuckey is a solid defender, but not focused enough to stay with Bibby at all times. Bibby will score, but so will Stuckey. I call this match up even.
Joe Johnson vs. Rip Hamilton
Johnson is the better all around player. Hamilton will have a hard time guarding Johnson. The Hawks like to run Joe to the left wing and get him the ball. Plus, Johnson can post Rip. The Pistons coaching staff would be smart to put Stuckey on JJ during some stretches.
On the other side of the coin, JJ is going to have to chase Hamilton all over the court and over countless screens. The Pistons create much of their offense from Hamilton reading screens and how teams guard the screen off the ball. Is Johnson in good enough shape to chase Rip all night long and still carry the Hawks’ offense in the last 4 minutes of the 4th quarter? That will be a huge question if these teams play in the 1st round. I give the edge to the Hawks.
Josh Smith vs. Tayshaun Prince
This whole season J-Smoove has been a wild card for the Hawks. He has the ability to make a huge impact on this series or he could disappear. If he is determined on defense, Smith will keep Prince in front of him and negate some of Prince’s vaunted low post game.
Prince is a member of the “Redeem Team” and one of the best defenders in the NBA. The past four years he has been 2nd team all defense in the Association. He will cause all kind of problems for Smith if Smith is careless with the basketball. Ok, if Smith tries to dribble Tayshaun probably will steal the ball from him. Prince is not playing as well this year offensively. I think he is tired and playing too many minutes. Arron Affalo has not really been able to play minutes at the small forward.
Of all the Redeem Team members, Prince’s game is down this year. However, he killed the Celtics with a big 3 point shot on Sunday and his passing is light years ahead of Smith’s. The Pistons have a clear edge here especially if the bumpy J-Smoove shows up for this series.
Al Horford vs. Rasheed Wallace
“The Boss” has been playing great since the all star break. He had a monster game against the Denver Nuggets; then he followed that up with a 20 point / 20 rebound game against Miami. In last year’s playoffs, Horford was able to score in the low post against Boston even when guarded by Kevin Garnett.
Of all the Hawks on the roster, Horford is the one guy that has to stay in Atlanta. No what Rick Sund says, Horford is a power forward with a Karl Malone type future. He is not a center, but neither are Rasheed or Antonio McDyess. However, I am sure that the Pistons will not double him in the post.
Wallace and McDyess will take turns guarding him. Wallace’s length, positioning, and defensive savvy will be a huge challenge for Horford. Wallace can block shots, but he is just as likely to slap down and go for steals. In my mind, Wallace is probably the most important player on the Pistons. If he is motivated and plays well, the Pistons are better than the Hawks. Wallace is the one player in this series that can run to the low block, receive the ball, and score consistently.
Horford will battle him in the post, but Wallace is kind of like and old school Kevin McHale in the post. He is a force and then he can take his game out and make 3 point shots. One quality to Wallace that works in the Hawks’ favor is that he does not like to draw fouls and go to the line. When the Pistons go to Wallace at the end of games, Horford and the Hawks must make him score over the top. I give Wallace an edge over Horford, but only for the 2009 playoffs.
Marvin Williams vs. Antonio McDyess
It is going to be interesting to see how these teams match up on the interior. Williams is really a small forward, but he cannot really guard Rasheed or Tayshaun. He can guard McDyess and actually pressure McDyess when he catches the ball on the perimeter. I really like this match up for Atlanta. The Pistons probably will have to put Prince on Williams, because of Williams’ range on his jump shot. McDyess will not be able to guard Williams at all. Add to that the fact that Marvin will be playing for his next contract and Marvin might have a monster series.
McDyess is old and does not move that well, so Williams should be able to grab some offensive rebounds. Defensively, Williams is able to come out on the floor to guard McDyess. The Pistons do not run any plays for McDyess, but he finds open spots on the floor when his defender helps off him. McDyess is a very accurate shooter out to 20 feet, but he has no low post game that could hurt the Hawks. The Hawks have a slight advantage depending on Marvin’s energy level.
Hawks Bench vs. Pistons Bench
One of the biggest stories of this final segment of the NBA season is going to be how effective Allen Iverson is coming off the bench for Detroit. His statistical numbers with the Pistons have been eerily similar to his numbers with the Denver Nuggets. AI can score in bunches and look for him to be on the floor in crunch time. That would mean the Pistons going with a small line up, but Prince will be able to match up with Atlanta’s forwards, because Smith and Williams will not post up.
The Pistons probably come with Jason Maxiell, Walter Herrman, and former Georgia Tech guard Will Bynum in their rotation. Maxiell is an explosive offensive rebounder and finisher around the basket. Herrmann probably sees his minutes limited, but Bynum could be a factor pressuring Flip Murray when he has to play the point.
Murray and Mo Evans can score off the Hawks bench. I keep waiting for Mo Evans to find his 3 point stroke again this season. Murray has been playing key minutes and scoring in bunches since the All Star Break. Zaza will be the Hawks post guy off the bench. (Even though the numbers do not bear it out at this time, I still think the Hawks would be better with Zaza starting and Josh Smith or Marvin Williams coming off the bench. I know it will never happen, but the matchups would be better in this series.) The scary thought for the Hawks is Maxiell flying down the court for dunks. It is a good thing that the Pistons probably will not try to push the basketball at all in this series.
Both teams have a big drop off on the defensive end when they substitute. The idea of Iverson being the main scorer for Detroit’s second unit is intriguing. With all the cameras and bright lights of the playoffs, I see him being a major factor. For the Hawks, Mo Evans can earn some minutes on the defensive end. He will have to be a defensive stopper when the Pistons go to a smaller line up. With Iverson, I give the Pistons a solid edge in bench play.
The Pistons are battle tested and have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in the last six seasons. The guys on the Hawks’ roster, except for Bibby, have never had real success in the playoffs. I just hope the AI experiment fails and the Hawks end up hosting the Heat in the 1st round. I liked the way that the Hawks matched up with the Heat last Friday.
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