Check out my article on Bleacher Report about Joe Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks. I look at five different scenarios that could happen heading into the NBA free agent bonanza in the summer of 2010.
I think Joe Johnson is the Hawks best and most valubable player. It is almost criminal the amount of minutes he has had to play the past two seasons. Add that to the fact that Super Joe has to guard the other team's best player almost every night and you have a recipe for wearing him out before the playoffs.
The fact that the Hawks have not addressed this defensive liability is one of the big questions facing Coach Mike Woodson as training camp opens today. Jamal Crawford is probably an average defender at best and Jeff Teague is way too small to guard other shooting guards. Mario West is not the answer. Can Mo Evans help Joe out?
In the Samuel Beckett play, the two main characters are waiting for Godot to show up. While waiting they talk some and wonder what will happen when Godot shows up. That is exactly what Hawks fans are doing with the possible trade for the Phoenix Suns Amare Stoudemire.
Stoudemire is the perfect fit for the Hawks roster. Hawks GM Rick Sund almost has made all the right moves this summer. I would have taken Eric Maynor instead of Jeff Teague. He kept the core group of Hawks together without destroying the payroll. But, the Hawks still are a middle of the pack team in an improving Eastern Conference.
Sund needs to trade for Amare. Trading for Stoudemire would elevate this team into the conversation for an Eastern Conference title. Forget about the money and Stoudemire’s player option after next year. The Hawks can do a deal with the Suns for the Joshes. Let’s dream a little dream for 2010.
Why getting Stoudemire makes sense for the Hawks?
From day one, Stoudemire gives you a low post scoring presence that demands a double team. I watched this guy destroy the Hawks in the post last year in a mid-season game in Philips Arena. His short jump hook from the left block is a devastating move. Plus, he has counter moves and can score with either hand around the basket.
For his career, Stoudemire averages more than 20 points a game, but he does not demand a large number of shots. He averages about 14-15 shots per game. One of the weakest areas for the Hawks in the playoffs against the Cavs was their lack of offensive execution. The Hawks just do not have great set plays.
Stoudemire solves that dilemma. You can isolate him on the block, run the high screen and roll with Al Horford coming from low post to high post, or Stoudemire can screen and pop for a patented 20 foot jump shot or a dump down to Horford on the block.
Defensively, Stoudemire is only serviceable in the post, but he is long and blocks shots around the rim. The best part of his game for the Hawks will be the rebounding. He over 8 boards a game in his career. That means the Hawks would have Horford and Stoudemire averaging almost 20 boards a game from the starting bigs.
Plus, Horford is going to guard the other team’s best player in screen and roll situations. Stoudemire can stay closer to the rim and clog up the lane. Looking at next 2010, the Hawks would have a two man post defensive tandem to guard Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace, Shaq and Anderson Varejao, and Dwight Howard and Brandon Bass. I even might take Stoudemire and Horford over those other tandems.
Off the court, acquiring Stoudemire means a ton to the Hawks in attendance. Atlanta was 20th in the NBA in attendance in 2008-2009. Philips Arena was at about 88 percent capacity on average. Stoudemire would pay for himself in increased attendance, parking revenue, marketing revenue, and general hype in this city.
Every night? I know Stoudemire is often injured. Reports are he had surgery this week on his damaged eye from last year. In his 7 seasons in the NBA, he has only played full seasons 4 times. It is a concern, but when he is healthy Stoudemire is a 1st or 2nd team All NBA player. Hawks have no one else at that level.
For Stoudemire, being traded to Atlanta gives him the opportunity he has craved. Stoudemire immediately becomes the face of the franchise in Atlanta. He no longer lingers somewhat in Steve Nash’s shadow. Also, he would be a soothing and funny presence in the locker room.
He takes all the pressure of Joe Johnson. JJ can just show up for all 82 games and play hard without having to worry about all of this ridiculous “Joe is not a leader talk”. Joe Johnson is a warrior. He comes to play every night.
If Stoudemire is a Hawk, here are projected rotations for the top teams in the East:
Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace
Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Brandon Bass, Dwight Howard
Moe Williams, Delonte West, Lebron, Varejao, Shaq
Mike Bibby, JJ, Marvin Williams, Stoudemire, Horford, Jamal Crawford
On paper, the Hawks match up very well with all of these teams. You think Shaq wants to guard Stoudemire in the pick and roll? Jamal Crawford looks to be one of the best guards off the bench in the entire NBA. In recent NBA playoff history, I would much rather have Joe Johnson than Vince Carter.
In Stoudemire, Horford, and Zaza Pachulia the Hawks have three guys that can try to guard Dwight Howard.
For Atlanta Hawks fans, the days / deadlines to watch for this are July 15th and August 1st. To make this deal happen, the Hawks are going to have to sign Josh Childress somehow. I think if J-Chill thought he was going to Phoenix he would sign today.
Secondly, after August 1st, the Hawks are able to trade Josh Smith without his consent to the trade. Hawks fans, can you imagine waking up in early August with Amare Stoudemire on your door step? It can’t hurt to dream.
Here is the news cycle of today’s sports world: one NBA insider named Chad Ford can hear a few rumors from NBA general managers and publish those rumors as rumors in a notes section of his NBA draft column.
Then, an intrepid columnist from the local Atlanta media, like the AJC’s Mark Bradley, can reference that notes section in a quickie article to try and drum up page views, web sites hits, and erratic fan comments on his sports blog.
Then, a concerned Hawks observer like me can take apart Bradley’s article. Classic Bleacher Report fodder—I could argue with Bradley for hours over beers about his article today about the Hawks mercurial forward Josh Smith. (I don’t know if he is a small forward or power forward and that is part of the problem).
Bradley writes that he would only trade Josh Smith for Kobe Bryant. That statement is utterly ridiculous. I spent about 15 minutes today at work and I came up with 50 players that I would rather have on my team than Josh Smith.
Okay, I think Smith is improving and worth keeping, but c’mon are you going to win an NBA title with Josh Smith? If you throw out salaries, contracts, and budgets, there are over 50 NBA players that I would take over Smith. Here are a few--Hedo, Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza, Andrew Bynum, Brandon Roy, Paul Pierce…
Yao Ming, Paul Millsap, Carlos Boozer, Nene, Chris Anderson, Kendrick Perkins, Amare Stoudemire, Tony Parker, Manu Gnobili, Melo, Thaddeus Young, Brook Lopez, Vince Carter, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose…I could go on, but you get the idea.
Well, Bradley might say not all of those guys are power forwards. Neither is Kobe. J-Smoove does not want to play power forward. He wants to play on the perimeter. Al Horford should really be your power forward.
I like Josh Smith. I am the first person to jump out of my seat when he dunks or blocks a shot. He is as athletic as anyone in the NBA. Maybe only Lebron is more athletic. Maybe, but Smith is not even a top 30 NBA player.
He will be lucky to make the all star team in two years let alone be better than Hawks guard Joe Johnson. He is the third best player on his own team and I think Bibby had a better year than Smith had this year, so that makes him the Hawks fourth option on offense. The future of this team is Al Horford.
If Bradley had to coach Smith, he would start drinking every morning about 9 am. Smith is kind of like Jeff Francoeur. No matter how many times hitting coach Terry Pendleton tells Frenchy to make sure he sees pitches in every at bat, he continues to swing at the first pitch. No matter how many times, Coach Mike Woodson tells Smith not to shoot jumpers, he still shoots jumpers. Are you going to blame that on Pendleton, on Woodson?
Listen, J-Smoove is going to be hard to move because of the 6 million dollar trade kicker that Chad Ford from ESPN writes about in his column. But, that does not mean that GM Rick Sund should not pursue any opportunity to improve this Hawks team. A huge chasm exists between the Hawks and the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.
Mr. Bradley threw out some names that he would not want in exchange for Smith. Let’s take a look at a couple of these guys and some trade scenarios.
I would definitely consider a deal today for Chris Bosh. With Bosh, the Hawks would have a legitimate shot to improve in the East next year. Yes, he is in the last year of his deal. That just means two things: he is going to play great next year and you have a year to convince him to re-sign with the Hawks. He might just fall back in love with the city of Atlanta.
Imagine the kind of financial freedom that would give the Hawks for the free agency bonanza of NBA summer 2010. If Joe Johnson wants to explore free agency, the Hawks might be able to convince Bosh to re-sign and bring Dwayne Wade to the ATL. You could have both Wade and Bosh for two or three more years.
Bradley just goes off the deep end when he says he would not trade Smith for the number one pick in this year’s draft. Blake Griffin’s tenacity, effort, desire, and will to win, especially on the glass, would make Bradley forget about Josh Smith about four games into the 2009-2010 regular season.
Griffin in the starting line up makes the Hawks a better team next year. It would also free up a ton of money to sign someone else—Hedo Turkoglo for instance. Think about this line up: Mike Bibby or Eric Maynor, Joe Johnson, Turkoglo, Blake Griffin, and Al Horford. You could bring Marvin Williams, Flip Murray, Mo Williams, Sam Young, and some other free agent big man off the bench.
Season ticket sales would be sky high. The Hawks would be must see NBA action every night.
Okay, these trades seem far-fetched. How about a legitimate trade option? You mean, Mr. Bradley, that you would not trade Josh Smith for Monta Ellis? That trade would be great for the Hawks. I think the salary and year numbers are close enough to match up. This actually might be a workable trade.
GM Rick Sund needs to explore every scenario this summer to improve the Hawks. This team is at a crossroads. It has to get better.
Sund might be floating Josh Smith rumors, so Joe Johnson will sign his extension thinking that Smith is on his way out. He might be floating Smith’s name out there, but really trying to deal Joe Johnson. Uh, that would be a big mistake.
I would just like someone to do some digging and find out some real news! Call and ask Sund a question. The problem might be that good analysis does not really translate into page views, while a picture of Megan Fox sitting on a bath tub wrapped in a towel does. By the way, AJC please give Sekou Smith a picture on his Hawks blog.
Watching the NBA playoffs virtually every night for the past six weeks gives you so many options for topics to discuss. I wish I had a forum like sports talk radio hosts to talk about everything going on in the NBA and the world of sports.
Since the Atlanta Hawks were swept out of the playoffs, I have been following several Hawks analysts on blogs, Twitter, and the Hawks team web site. It is an exciting time to be a Hawks fan.
A huge area of concern for most Hawks’ fans is the Zaza Pachulia question. Should the Hawks resign Zaza or should Rick Sund use Zaza’s money and try to make a splash on the free agent market?
I am torn because I still remember how fired up I was when the Hawks beat the Celtics in Game 6 of the 2008 playoffs. Heck, I even named my Hawks blog after the fiery big man from Georgia. However, after seeing how just how huge the talent gap is between the Hawks and the Celtics, Magic, and Cavs, I know that the Hawks have to upgrade at this position.
You have to assume that Sund already has a certain amount of money allocated to resign Zaza. Sund can make the choice between either upgrading the offense or strengthening the defense. It kind of hurts to say this, but here are two guys that I would rather have on the Hawks’ roster than Zaza:
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers. The 6’10” 260 pounder center averaged 8 points and 7 rebounds per game. He averaged 11 more minutes per game than Zaza in 2008-2009. Varejao has a player option and can opt out of his contract with the Cavaliers and become an unrestricted free agent.
Remember just last year, he sat out until early December as a restricted free agent when the Cavs did not offer him a multi-year deal. Finally, the New Orleans Hornets signed him to an offer sheet and the Cavs matched the contract the next day. He signed for 2 years and 11.1 million with a player option for next year for 6.2 million.
If I were him, I think I can make more on the open market even in the very tough NBA economy. He played in every game for the Cavs and started about half the games. He played about 30 minutes a game. His statistics do not wow anyone, but this guy has a ton of intangibles.
He probably is near the top in charges taken in the NBA every year. He is very good defending out on the floor (unless he has to guard a perimeter guy like Rashard Lewis) and he is good finishing at the rim out of the high screen and roll. The Hawks are weak in both of those areas.
Varejao is a better defender than Al Horford is right now. If the Hawks can re-sign Marvin Williams, Varejao can be the first post guy off the bench. He also would allow Coach Mike Woodson more flexibility in dealing with the volatile Josh Smith. When Smith acts up, Varejao can start and play starter minutes. Sadly, Zaza cannot. At least not on a winning or playoff caliber team.
He is an upgrade over Zaza in almost every area. He is quicker, a better shot blocker, rebounder, and he is better scoring around the basket in traffic. Zaza is a better perimeter shooter, but neither one of these guys should be allowed to shoot outside very often.
Maybe the best thing that excites me as a Hawks fan is the idea of Varejao and Horford playing together. Varejao would free up Horford from guarding the other team’s best inside player and allow Big Al to concentrate on his offensive game. They could dominate the boards at both ends.
Lastly, Varejao’s energy would fire up the home crowd. He has personality and toughness. In Cleveland, there are thousands of fans every night that wear the Varejao wigs to home games. As far as dollars, Varejao may have some solid offers, but if two years ago is an indication, teams are not willing to come up with long term dollars for a guy that cannot score. I think he is worth a 3 year deal worth 20-24 million. I have to think Zaza is looking for a 4 year deal.
Brandon Bass, Dallas Mavericks. The 6’8” 240 pound third year guy from LSU fills a totally different need for the Hawks. He played about the same minutes as Zaza last year and scored a few more points, but he is an undersized forward.
He is very athletic and his offensive game is way better than Zaza and Varejao added together. He would play a lot more minutes in a Hawks uniform. For the Mavs, he basically plays minutes behind Dirk Nowitzki or when the Mavs go to a small lineup with Dirk at the five spot.
In the playoffs, Mavs’ coach Rick Carlisle was running isolation plays for Bass on the low block. The Hawks do not have any player on the roster that can score on isolation post ups like Bass. Read that line again. Yeah, the Hawks are weak on the post. Horford can make a big jump offensively this summer, but if I needed a basket at the end of the game today I would go to Bass before Horford.
Bass is athletic enough to make up for his lack of size, but I would be concerned about his rebounding and defense. Bass went to LSU so coming to Atlanta and SEC country might appeal to him. Bass might even come cheaper than Pachulia or Varejao.
Atlanta Hawks new General Manager Rick Sund had it very easy last off season. He faced a few tough decisions, but nothing like this summer. The Hawks are at a crossroads in a strange NBA world and Sund is the guy riding in the back seat that ultimately is going to decide which road the Hawks take.
The Hawks could choose correctly and take the road toward being a consistent winner, or they could take the road back to a 15 win team. Nobody wants that. The importance of this off season for the Hawks franchise cannot be overstated. Both draft picks have to make this team. The talent level at the end of the bench is awful. Here is a list of 10 things Sund should do this summer:
1. Decide Coach Mike Woodson’s fate by June 1. If you let Woodson go, the new coach needs draft day input. By almost all measurements, Woodson deserves a contract extension. However, if Sund wanted to shake this team up he could look for a new head coach who would bring in his own entourage of assistants, strength guys, and program.
The problem is the money. The same old names have been mentioned like Jeff Van Gundy and Avery Johnson, even a coach like Billy Donovan or Tubby Smith is going to demand north of 3 million per year. If you fire Woodson, here are two more economical options Sam Mitchell or Kelvin Sampson.
2. Take a point guard or perimeter player with the 19th pick. There is only one upper tier player in this draft and that is Blake Griffin. However, there are going to be solid players when the Hawks pick. I think you go point guard here, but definitely go perimeter. I like Johnny Flynn from Syracuse. The question probably is does he know anything about playing man to man defense. Every college player will be shocked by NBA attention to defensive detail, so do not worry about this.
3. Find a hidden gem of a player with the 49th pick. If I am not mistaken, Sund took Robert Swift. I am worried that he takes a big in the first round that bombs (BJ Mullens, anyone). Take the big man in this spot. There will be guys with size left. You can find a big in the 2nd round that can be an impact player—Anderson Varejao, Carlos Boozer, and Big Baby Davis to name a few. Both draft picks have to make the roster.
4. Give Joe Johnson an extension. Unless you think that D-Wade, Bosh, or another tier 1 player will sign here in Summer 2010, you have to give Super Joe an extension. This guy is a warrior. He led the NBA in minutes played. He has an all around game and he can carry you in a playoff series—last year—and he is still young. I offer him 3 years and 45 million dollars.
5. Trade Josh Smith. The time has come to choose between Smith and Joe Johnson. I choose Johnson. Smith is a potential all star, but he is also a potential team and coach killer. The funny part is that in the NBA universe Smith’s contract makes him a bargain. You can get value for him. You might have to throw in the rights to Josh Childress (try to throw in Acie Law and Speedy Claxton’s expiring contract.) I think Detroit would make a deal to get some cap space for 2010. You might be able to get Tayshaun Prince and Will Bynum for Smith, Childress, and Law.
6. Hold off on making Mike Bibby an offer. I have so much respect for Bibby and the way he played this year. He might have been the Hawks’ MVP for the regular season, but he is so limited defensively that the Hawks should move in another direction. My plan for the point guard position is in three parts: draft a point guard, sign Jason Kidd to a two year deal, and trade Acie Law. Yes, Kidd is old, but he is not going to retire. He is big, runs a team, and guards better than Bibby. The financial commitment to Kidd would be less than to say Andre Miller or Raymond Felton.
7. Let Zaza Pachulia go. Zaza brings effort and intensity, but is he worth what you are going to have to pay him. No. I think Sund should use Zaza’s money on a more productive and versatile player. I like some of the free agents that are performing in the playoffs. For the same money or even less, you could go after Chris Anderson, Big Baby, Marcin Gortat, or Antonio McDyess. I think McDyess would look great beside Horford in a lineup. Plus, can you image Philips Arena going nuts for the Birdman Anderson? I mean this is the Hawks!
8. Re-sign Flip Murray in late July. I want to wait and see if there is a market for Murray. He played great this season off the bench and was vital to the Hawks’ 10 win improvement this year. But, do not forget he was probably out of the NBA if not for Sund. Wait and you might be able to get him for another one year deal, but double or even triple his money.
9. Re-sign Marvin Williams. Make Williams a solid qualifying offer. Marvin is never going to live up to his draft status or the fact that he is not Chris Paul, but he is solid NBA scorer. I thought he played harder than ever before this season on the defensive end. Of course, it is kind of a contract year. Sund already has a blue print for what to do with Marvin after the Childress affair last summer.
10. Convince Childress to come back. I actually think you can argue that Childress’ basketball skills probably eroded by playing in Greece. He has to be home sick and miss playing games in front of 15,000 people a night. He still is not a starter in the league and does not get starter money. The Hawks have the leverage and should offer something like 3 years, 21 million.
What shape do those moves leave the Hawks in for next year? Well, let’s just say we have to trade the rights to Josh Childress to make a Smith deal happen. Also, I have wanted Ron Artest for the Hawks, but I am going to take Chris Anderson instead. That leaves the Hawks with a deeper perimeter team and very thin on big men. The 49th pick has to be a big man. Then, keep Solomon Jones for a few million and here is your roster:
Jason Kidd, Joe Johnson, Tayshaun Prince, Al Horford, Chris Anderson, Johnny Flynn, Flip Murray, Maurice Evans, Marvin Williams, Solomon Jones, Tyler Hansborough (49th pick), Mario West
1. Mo and Flip have to play big. If Marvin Williams does not play, the Hawks are going with a 7 man rotation. Mo in the starting line up and Flip off the bench. These guys were picked up in August by GM Rick Sund and few in this town paid any attention (check my blog I was calling for the Evans signing before he signed). The combination is averaging almost 15 ppg in this series. Tonight, they both need to score in double figures.
2. The Hawks have to get to the foul line and convert. A high number of free throw attempts means that you are getting shots in the paint either on drives to the basket, transition cuts, or post moves. Atlanta is averaging 24 attempts per game from the line on 71% shooting. They need to get to the foul line 35 times tonight and shoot a high percentage.
3. Mike Bibby has to get more open 3 point shot attempts.. He is attempting under 5 shots per game from 3 point land in this playoff series. I do not think he is being aggressive enough on offensive end. Granted the Heat are keying on him with Mario Chalmers and Chalmers does not ever have to double team anyone in the post. The Hawks need to look for Bibby on quick kick outs after offensive rebounds. Bibby must be more aggressive and call his own number more tonight.
4. Al Horford must step up. Horford is highly respected in basketball circles all around the country. He is looked at as the next great power forward for USA basketball. The problem is that Jermaine O’Neal has exposed him as an under sized center who has trouble guarding a bigger player. Horford has to get physical on the offensive end. He has to attack the basket. He has to match Zaza Pachulia’s energy. Horford is averaging 2 offensive rebounds per game in this series. Tonight, he needs to man up and get about 6 offensive rebounds and convert them into scores.
5. Will the real Joe Johnson please stand up? Forget about his low scoring numbers. In the regular season, Super Joe averaged almost 6 assists versus 2.5 turnovers per game. Those numbers are close to being reversed against the Heat. Johnson needs to be a playmaker and let the offense come to him. When the Heat double him on the perimeter, he needs to attack the double and create open shots for teammates. The Hawks bigs, especially Josh Smith and Horford, need to cut to open areas and to the basket for easy scores. I have a great feeling the JJ is going to play his best game of the series tonight and lead the Hawks to a 3-2 series advantage.
Hopefully, Mike Woodson and his coaching staff have been able to bring the soaring Hawks back down to Earth after Sunday’s big win. The city is buzzing about this team and the danger is that the players just show up and expect to beat the Heat again. Some people are even talking about a sweep which is ridiculous. The Hawks need to understand that they are going to face a much different Miami Heat team on Wednesday night in Game 2.
For starters, the Heat’s young players should come out with a better idea of intensity needed to compete in the playoffs and of the noise level in Philips Arena. Last year, a veteran team like the Celtics was rattled in the Hawks home arena, so the Heat’s struggles were not unprecedented. Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, and company should all be better on Wednesday night.
Secondly, Dwayne Wade clearly was rusty from his week long lay off. The Hawks defense has done a solid job on Wade all season, but he did play up to his normal standards. I like the way the Hawks forwards helped Joe and Mo Evans by challenging every one of Wade's attempts. Undoubtedly, Wade is going to be on a mission in Game 2.
The Heat are sure to run more screen and roll on the wing to try and get him into the middle of the floor. I also see Coach Spoelstra running some zipper cut action to get Wade the ball at the top of the floor. I would actually not bring the screener in this case and let Wade work one on one. The Heat could flatten out their offense to a 1-4 low set with 3 point shooters in the corners.
Finally, the best feature of the Hawks' win on Sunday was their unselfish play on the offenive end of the floor. The Hawks were very focused on the offensive end. The ball movement reminded me of that great stretch of home games in December.
Clearly, Coach Woodson had a game plan to attack the Miami Heat inside. Smith, Horford, and Zaza had opportunities in the paint early in the game. Getting alley oop dunks, easy post scores, and offensive put backs opened up the outside shooting for the Hawks perimeter players.
The Hawks have the experience not to look beyone Game 2. Stay focused on the task at hand. Offensively, they have to stick to their game plan. Defensively, they need to be ready for an all out assault from D-Wade. Wade might take over 30 shots in this game. The Hawks defense on Wade is the key. If Wade responds with an all around monster game with a near triple-double, the Hawks are in trouble and the Heat can steal a game at the Highlight Factory.
The Atlanta Hawks have earned their playoff berth and playoff seeding this season. Unlike last season, no one can say that they backed into the 2009 playoffs. This team is firmly entrenched as the 4th best team in the Eastern Conference.
I wrote a breakdown of the player matchups for the Hawks versus Miami Heat playoff series about three weeks ago. Nothing really has changed in my thinking. Any 5th grader that follows the NBA knows that the main key to this series is Dwayne Wade and how the Hawks decide to try to attack him defensively. Without Wade, the Heat are a lottery team. He should finish second to Lebron James in the NBA MVP voting.
However, the Hawks clearly have a better 8 man rotation than the Heat. The Hawks also have the benefit of playing in the playoffs last year. The problem for the Hawks is that an NBA playoff series can be dominated by one player. If Wade goes off for 50+ points in Game 1 and the Heat win in Philips Arena, the Hawks will be facing their toughest challenge in a season filled with adversity.
To beat the Heat, the Hawks have to answer 5 key questions:
1. What is the injury status of Marvin Williams? The former second overall pick in the NBA draft is in his contract year. He elevated his game this year on both ends of the floor. His three point shooting and defensive efforts were essential to the Hawks’ quick start to the season.
However, Marvin’s back is out of whack. He has not played much in the past six weeks. I have been arguing for him to come off the bench since last summer. If he can score off the bench, use his length to bother the Heat’s Michael Beasley, and rebound, the Hawks should win this series.
2. Can Jermaine O’Neal be a low post scoring option for the Heat? The Al Horford vs. Jermaine O’Neal match up in the low post is very intriguing. Most of the time playoff basketball slows down and the offense has to rely more on set plays. The Heat need to generate some easy baskets in the post by getting the ball to O’Neal. Horford will have to guard him in the post.
I like Horford’s energy and defensive intensity. He has to push O’Neal off the block and make him shoot face up jumpers. If O’Neal can spin into the lane and shoot short hook shots, the Hawks are in trouble. The Hawks cannot afford to try to double in the post and take away Wade on the perimeter. If O’Neal reaches the 20 point mark in a game, the Heat probably win.
On the other hand, the Hawks need to establish Horford on the block on the offensive end. He has been inconsistent this season with his post moves. If he is aggressive, “The Boss” should be able to score on O’Neal who likely will play behind in the post and let Horford catch the ball on the block.
3. Which version of Josh Smith shows up for this series? Since the Marvin Williams injury, Smith has started to play good basketball. He is doing the little things and he is scoring and rebounding. His defense is better. He has taken charges and played the passing lanes. He has kept his man from penetrating for the most part. J-Smoove also has become a playmaker. He is an above average passer who delivers the ball to perimeter shooters on the money. Guys can just catch the pass and shoot.
Smith seems to have realized that he can score 30 points in a game if he takes the ball to the basket and makes his free throws. He occasionally jacks up a terrible jump shot, but those miscues have become fewer and fewer. My problem with J-Smoove has been that for every good thing on the court he does a bad thing. If he makes more positive plays than negative, the Hawks can beat the Heat and challenge the Cavs in Round 2.
4. Can Mike Bibby continue to make big shots at the end of games? Bibby has been a rock for Hawks coach Mike Woodson this season. The other night I watched him direct the offense and call out plays at the end of a crucial Hawks win. Plus, all year long, Bibby has made clutch 3 point shots at the end of games.
The Heat defense should focus on Joe Johnson in end of game situations. Johnson was dynamite in last year’s playoffs and scored repeatedly on the Boston Celtics in the 4th quarter of games. This year he has Bibby to pass to for the open jump shot. It is possible that Bibby will have 3-4 shots in this series that will decide games. I hope that he makes them.
5. Can the Hawks slow down Dwayne Wade? Wade cannot be stopped, but he can be contained. Hold him to 30 and make him earn those points by not giving up dunks and lay-ups. Slow down the Heat’s transition game by scoring on the offensive end.
I have been critical of the Hawks’ defensive approach to guarding the screen and roll play all season. There are probably about 12 ways to guard this play, but the Hawks seem to only switch the play. Switching works if the offensive player with the ball is hesitant to attack the bigger defender off the dribble. D-Wade will not have that problem. He will attack the Hawk Bigs, score, and probably get fouled.
The Hawks have to mix up how they guard the screen and roll depending on the players involved. If Jermaine O’Neal is coming to set the screen for D-Wade, the Hawks should double Wade. Make him give the ball up to O’Neal on the perimeter. O’Neal can make the outside shot, but can the Heat beat you with him shooting jumpers? I don’t think so.
If Udonis Haslem is coming to set the screen, the Hawks do their normal switch. I think that Josh Smith is athletic enough to guard Wade on some possessions. If Smith focuses, gets into a defensive stance, and gives Wade a step, Smith can keep Wade from getting all the way to the basket. Smith could force him into taking jump shots off the dribble with a hand in his face.
Of all the playoff matchups in the Eastern Conference, this series shapes up as the most competitive. It looks like it will be the superstar player leading his team versus a deeper, more veteran Hawks’ squad. My prediction is that the Hawks with home court advantage will win this series in seven games.
1. The Spurs are aging quickly. The Spurs are older than Bob Rathbun’s analogies. These guys are like the old guys with knee pads that come and play pick up at the playground. At one point, Michael Finley, Drew Gooden, and Kurt Thomas were all on the floor at the same time. I know Roger Mason is still pretty young, but he looks old. If Tim Duncan, Gnobili, and Parker, play great basketball, the Spurs can make it back to the Finals, but the championship window for this version of the Spurs has been slammed shut and painted over.
2. Hawks’ guard Flip Murray is on fire. His confidence level is at a season high. He was attacking Gnobili like Manu just arrived in the States with a knapsack and Marta card. Over the past three games, Murray is averaging over 20 points per game. Murray has been up and down a little this season, but he gives the Hawks a spark off the bench that they did not have last season.
3. The Hawks overall roster is much better than the Spurs right now. I especially like the Hawks young forwards. If they can re-sign Marvin Williams to a reasonable contract this summer and Josh Childress makes the obvious decision to return to the NBA, the Hawks have four young and talented front court players.
4. Here is one of Coach Mike Woodson’s biggest problems in a nutshell. Joe Johnson had to start the game guarding Tony Parker, because Bibby cannot guard Parker. It is a good thing that the Eastern Conference is devoid of attacking point guards. Bibby can guard Rajon Rondo, Rafer Alston, and Mario Chalmers. I would be worried about Moe Williams of the Cavs. Parker still has 20 points and 5 assists at halftime.
5. Josh Smith has no low post game. Also, he is not a very good jump shooter from outside of 5 feet. The Spurs started the game with Matt Bonner guarding him. Smith should dominate Bonner, but he has no offensive package of moves. The Hawks cannot take advantage of the mismatch, because Smith is so limited offensively. The Hawks threw him the ball on the right block and he took a terrible fall away jump shot. Note to Josh—develop a left-handed jump hook. A shot based maybe on Tayshaun Prince’s move. Left-handed players are tough to guard, but the way to guard J-Smoove is to just let him shoot the basketball.
6. The Spurs are one of the best teams in the NBA at executing out of bounds plays for scores. At the end of the first quarter, Popovich called a beautiful play side out of bounds play for Ginobli to get a lay up. Over the course of a game, those extra points add up to wins.
7. Manu Gnobili is not healthy. This is his first game back after missing 19 games. He missed 12 games earlier this season. He looks slow and the explosiveness off the dribble are not there. The Western Conference teams are fairly equal talent wise and only 2.5 games separate five different teams for playoff spots. If Gnobili is not 100% for the playoffs, the Spurs are going to have an early exit this year.
8. Mike Bibby got a sweet cut right in the middle of his forehead courtesy of an elbow from Matt Bonner. Bibby was the victim of a bush league play that happens all the time in the Association. Bonner flailed his arms after the whistle. Kobe Bryant does this all the time. It should be a technical foul.
9. If Joe Johnson gets hurt, the Hawks can’t win a first round playoff series. When Super Joe went down with a twisted ankle on the very first play of the game for the Hawks, I actually started righting the Hawks 2009 season obituary. Without Johnson’s all around game, quiet leadership, and offensive fire power, the Hawks will not beat the Heat.
10. Al Horford is the key to Atlanta’s playoff destiny. He brings energy, rebounding, and defense. He will set a solid screen which is a sacrifice that some are not willing to make. Coach Woodson has to have the confidence the isolate Horford some on the low block. Last season, he was able to score on Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. In a potential 1st round match up, I like Horford versus Jermaine O’Neal of the Heat.
My 1st Round Winners:
Louisville, Ohio State, Arizona, Wake Forest, WVU, Kansas, Boston College, Michigan State, Connecticut, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi State, Marquette, Missouri, California, Memphis
Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Xavier, UCLA, Villanova, Texas, Duke, North Carolina, LSU, Illinois, Gonzaga, Temple, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma
My 2nd Round Winners:
Louisville, Arizona, WVU, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Connecticut, Missouri, Memphis
Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Villanova, Texas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Clemson
My Elite Eight:
Arizona, Michigan State, Connecticut, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Texas, North Carolina, Clemson
My Final Four:
Arizona, Memphis, Texas, North Carolina
Final Game:
Memphis vs. North Carolina - North Carolina wins the National Championship 99-83.
The NBA season is a marathon. During the long season, the factors that determine whether a team wins or loses are all over the board. A star player's wife might be mad that the pool isn't heated to the right temperature, a guy's child might be doing poorly in school, someone's girlfriend is flirting with a country music star at the Memphis game, etc. I mean there are ups and downs. Coaches fight with referees, referees fight with players, players fight with coaches. The problem is no one has any patience and every time anything happens fifty people have to write something about it. Yes, this even happens to the Hawks! The Hawks are relevant and the Eastern Conference is starting to take notice.
The Hawks are rolling right now and they stretched their win streak to 5 games behind another huge performance from Joe Johnson. Also, Josh Smith's emphatic dunk along the left baseline brought Philips Arena to its feet. J-Smoove is garnering praise from all over the NBA universe, but Smith knows how quickly that can change. I think Smith loves playing in Atlanta and maybe all the talk about him being traded is starting to become real. Do you think J-Smoove wants to play in Sacramento, Portland, Detroit or somewhere worse (I think they play basketball in Beirut)? No way. Here is an article by Chris Mannix of CNNSI to check out about Josh Smith and the Hawks who are slowly grabbing some national attention.
Newspapers are dead and the world is changing. I would have loved to be a fly on the wall when the AJC management invaded the sports desk and told the graybeards of Bisher, Moore, Bradley and Schultz, “Guys we are giving you blog pages and putting the word “blog” over your name on the web site. Yeah, they are still opinion columns, but we are going to call them “blogs”. The goal is to generate page views. Use girls in bikinis, Erin Andrews, and whatever else to get people to read your stuff.”
The problem is that these blogs suck. I love to see these guys like Jeff Schultz reduced to doing a half-hearted blog on the AJC web page. You know these sportswriters have been complaining and vilifying bloggers for years and now they are becoming bloggers themselves. Karma is great.
Schultz’s blog has an “about” section, a “recent posts” section, an “archive” section, a ‘blogroll”, a “topics” section, and a “what makes me look smart” section (sometimes called a blogs I follow section). The interesting part to me is that there are a half dozen Hawks bloggers that have been writing better stuff all season long. Schultz does a bikini clad girl picture to boost page views. The guys at Billy Knight Stole My Lunch Money have been doing this all year—and doing it much better! Their last picture is a twelve on a ten point scale.
The funniest part of this whole change at the AJC is that the analysis of the Hawks is even more below average. His most recent article about the Mike Woodson and Josh Smith feud could have been written by any 14 year-old fan that has watched this team for the last few years. Give me something. These guys at the AJC have what bloggers crave…Access! Dig deeper. Find out the real story behind Woodson’s tirade. What went on behind the closed doors of the locker room to make J-Smoove wake up and play great basketball these past two games? Find out the inside information.
Okay, maybe no Hawks player will go on the record, but Jeff you are a blogger now. You do not have to worry about “on the record” and that journalism paradigm. Print the truth of what you find out and you will be fine. The fact is that most of the die hard Hawks bloggers that really follow this team would not even write a column as vanilla and boring as this one by Schultz.
I mean check out The Vent. She will let Josh Smith shoot as many jumpers as he wants. That is funny. That is the kind of ironic analysis that someone at the AJC could provide. I actually feel badly for Sekou Smith. He cannot even get his picture on the Hawks blog. The title just says “Hawks blog”. Very original. Sekou should start his own blog and call it “Hawksville.” The problem for Sekou is that the AJC still is paying him until they file for bankruptcy this summer.
After watching the Atlanta Hawks play two tough games this weekend, I am giving the Hawks the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. I know it seems early with around 20 games left to play, but I have confidence that with a healthy Mike Bibby and a long home stand, the Hawks are going to finish the season on a positive note.
If Bibby plays and the Hawks stay healthy, their 8 man rotation is pretty good. The Hawks’ 3 point shooting in Philips Arena and their defensive intensity are the big keys for this team.
Okay, pencil in the Hawks as the 4 seed in the playoffs. The scary part for Atlanta is that they might have to play the Detroit Pistons in the first round. Without Allen Iverson, the Pistons scored big road victories over Orlando and Boston this weekend.
The Hawks match up much better with the Miami Heat. The Heat's Dwayne Wade is the best player and most explosive offensive threat on these three teams, but the Pistons present so many more match up problems for Atlanta in a playoff series.
Here is a preview of the players going head to head if the Hawks have to face the Pistons in the 1st round of the playoffs:
Mike Bibby vs. Rodney Stuckey
The Hawks have been struggling during this stretch when Bibby has been hurt and sick. Without Bibby, the Hawks can make the playoffs, but they can forget about doing any damage in the 1st round. Bibby is the better shooter and passer than Stuckey, but Stuckey is younger and much more physical.
Stuckey still is learning the point guard position, but he is a physical guard that can get to the basket. If the Pistons decide to clear out and let Stuckey operate one on one against Bibby, the Hawks are in trouble. Stuckey is a solid defender, but not focused enough to stay with Bibby at all times. Bibby will score, but so will Stuckey. I call this match up even.
Joe Johnson vs. Rip Hamilton
Johnson is the better all around player. Hamilton will have a hard time guarding Johnson. The Hawks like to run Joe to the left wing and get him the ball. Plus, Johnson can post Rip. The Pistons coaching staff would be smart to put Stuckey on JJ during some stretches.
On the other side of the coin, JJ is going to have to chase Hamilton all over the court and over countless screens. The Pistons create much of their offense from Hamilton reading screens and how teams guard the screen off the ball. Is Johnson in good enough shape to chase Rip all night long and still carry the Hawks’ offense in the last 4 minutes of the 4th quarter? That will be a huge question if these teams play in the 1st round. I give the edge to the Hawks.
Josh Smith vs. Tayshaun Prince
This whole season J-Smoove has been a wild card for the Hawks. He has the ability to make a huge impact on this series or he could disappear. If he is determined on defense, Smith will keep Prince in front of him and negate some of Prince’s vaunted low post game.
Prince is a member of the “Redeem Team” and one of the best defenders in the NBA. The past four years he has been 2nd team all defense in the Association. He will cause all kind of problems for Smith if Smith is careless with the basketball. Ok, if Smith tries to dribble Tayshaun probably will steal the ball from him. Prince is not playing as well this year offensively. I think he is tired and playing too many minutes. Arron Affalo has not really been able to play minutes at the small forward.
Of all the Redeem Team members, Prince’s game is down this year. However, he killed the Celtics with a big 3 point shot on Sunday and his passing is light years ahead of Smith’s. The Pistons have a clear edge here especially if the bumpy J-Smoove shows up for this series.
Al Horford vs. Rasheed Wallace
“The Boss” has been playing great since the all star break. He had a monster game against the Denver Nuggets; then he followed that up with a 20 point / 20 rebound game against Miami. In last year’s playoffs, Horford was able to score in the low post against Boston even when guarded by Kevin Garnett.
Of all the Hawks on the roster, Horford is the one guy that has to stay in Atlanta. No what Rick Sund says, Horford is a power forward with a Karl Malone type future. He is not a center, but neither are Rasheed or Antonio McDyess. However, I am sure that the Pistons will not double him in the post.
Wallace and McDyess will take turns guarding him. Wallace’s length, positioning, and defensive savvy will be a huge challenge for Horford. Wallace can block shots, but he is just as likely to slap down and go for steals. In my mind, Wallace is probably the most important player on the Pistons. If he is motivated and plays well, the Pistons are better than the Hawks. Wallace is the one player in this series that can run to the low block, receive the ball, and score consistently.
Horford will battle him in the post, but Wallace is kind of like and old school Kevin McHale in the post. He is a force and then he can take his game out and make 3 point shots. One quality to Wallace that works in the Hawks’ favor is that he does not like to draw fouls and go to the line. When the Pistons go to Wallace at the end of games, Horford and the Hawks must make him score over the top. I give Wallace an edge over Horford, but only for the 2009 playoffs.
Marvin Williams vs. Antonio McDyess
It is going to be interesting to see how these teams match up on the interior. Williams is really a small forward, but he cannot really guard Rasheed or Tayshaun. He can guard McDyess and actually pressure McDyess when he catches the ball on the perimeter. I really like this match up for Atlanta. The Pistons probably will have to put Prince on Williams, because of Williams’ range on his jump shot. McDyess will not be able to guard Williams at all. Add to that the fact that Marvin will be playing for his next contract and Marvin might have a monster series.
McDyess is old and does not move that well, so Williams should be able to grab some offensive rebounds. Defensively, Williams is able to come out on the floor to guard McDyess. The Pistons do not run any plays for McDyess, but he finds open spots on the floor when his defender helps off him. McDyess is a very accurate shooter out to 20 feet, but he has no low post game that could hurt the Hawks. The Hawks have a slight advantage depending on Marvin’s energy level.
Hawks Bench vs. Pistons Bench
One of the biggest stories of this final segment of the NBA season is going to be how effective Allen Iverson is coming off the bench for Detroit. His statistical numbers with the Pistons have been eerily similar to his numbers with the Denver Nuggets. AI can score in bunches and look for him to be on the floor in crunch time. That would mean the Pistons going with a small line up, but Prince will be able to match up with Atlanta’s forwards, because Smith and Williams will not post up.
The Pistons probably come with Jason Maxiell, Walter Herrman, and former Georgia Tech guard Will Bynum in their rotation. Maxiell is an explosive offensive rebounder and finisher around the basket. Herrmann probably sees his minutes limited, but Bynum could be a factor pressuring Flip Murray when he has to play the point.
Murray and Mo Evans can score off the Hawks bench. I keep waiting for Mo Evans to find his 3 point stroke again this season. Murray has been playing key minutes and scoring in bunches since the All Star Break. Zaza will be the Hawks post guy off the bench. (Even though the numbers do not bear it out at this time, I still think the Hawks would be better with Zaza starting and Josh Smith or Marvin Williams coming off the bench. I know it will never happen, but the matchups would be better in this series.) The scary thought for the Hawks is Maxiell flying down the court for dunks. It is a good thing that the Pistons probably will not try to push the basketball at all in this series.
Both teams have a big drop off on the defensive end when they substitute. The idea of Iverson being the main scorer for Detroit’s second unit is intriguing. With all the cameras and bright lights of the playoffs, I see him being a major factor. For the Hawks, Mo Evans can earn some minutes on the defensive end. He will have to be a defensive stopper when the Pistons go to a smaller line up. With Iverson, I give the Pistons a solid edge in bench play.
The Pistons are battle tested and have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in the last six seasons. The guys on the Hawks’ roster, except for Bibby, have never had real success in the playoffs. I just hope the AI experiment fails and the Hawks end up hosting the Heat in the 1st round. I liked the way that the Hawks matched up with the Heat last Friday.
Have you been wondering where in the world James White plays basketball? The former Cincinnati Bearcat star is the best player on the Anaheim Arsenal of the D-League. He had 35 points last night in a big overtime win.
I know this because I was checking out the teammates of new Arsenal big man and former Hawk Othello Hunter. Hawks’ fans have been throwing down shots of Jameson this week to celebrate the big move that has given the Hawks a chance to win the Eastern Conference. The Hawks designated Othello Hunter for assignment to the Anaheim Arsenal of the D-League!
Think back to September – October 2007…Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers was complaining that the Lakers’ GM Mitch Kupchak was not doing enough to win a championship. It looked like Kupchak’s career was nearing an end with the Lakers. Then, in February 2008, Kupchak robbed the Memphis Grizzlies of Pau Gasol. Today, the Lakers are playing great basketball and have the deepest team in the NBA.
Today, Atlanta Hawks’ GM Rick Sund could have made a similar deal. He could have made a deal for a superstar to be the face of this franchise. Instead, the big news this week for the Hawks was that Othello Hunter was sent to the D-League. Is it Sund’s fault? No, the problem with the Hawks is the ridiculous management situation. Blame Steve Belkin, Michael Gearon, and the rest. Blame David Stern for letting this charade go on for so long.
Okay, I am joking. Really, Hawks fans are seeing the door close on a chance to make a trade to get them into contention for the Eastern Conference championship. If you read this blog, you know that I think the Hawks’ roster is built for the playoffs. Bibby and Marvin playing for contracts make the playoff roster even more interesting. I am confident Atlanta will beat Detroit or Miami in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
I also am confident that the Hawks with their current roster cannot beat the Celtics, Magic, or Cavs. The next few road games will provide a tough test, and we will see what the Hawks can do against tough teams. A few days back I proposed a trade to get the Hawks to the next level. I posted the editorial to another web site. With over 200 reads and some negative comments, here are a couple of my comments in response to the comments:
First of all, if you check out the stats, Josh Smith and Carmelo are close to even. Carmelo is obviously the better scorer and offensive player, but Smith has some advantages. He is younger, more athletic, and has a much more manageable contract. Plus, he has not already tuned out George Karl. Get Smith away from ATL and he might blossom.
Joe Johnson is one of my favorite Hawks, but he is a number 2--a Robin or Ed McMahon if you will. Melo would come in here as the face of the Hawks. He would take all the pressure of Joe. Melo would be the number 1 option and he would put sizzle in Philips Arena. The stars of Atlanta would be at these games.
Think about this match up in the 2nd round of this year's NBA playoffs:
Bibby, Joe, Melo, Horford, and Zaza versus Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, and Perkins.
I actually like Atlanta's starting five better on the offensive end. As always, Garnett's desire would be the X-factor. But can Paul Pierce guard Melo? Can Allen guard JJ? Allen could not get the job done against the Hawks in last year's playoffs.
Hawks’ bloggers and fans only can dream of a Melo and Joe Johnson combination. Really, no one cares. There are only two sports talk radio shows in this town and today they combined to talk about the Hawks for about 14 minutes. The derth of NBA talk and buzz in this town is disheartening. Okay, let me go watch Jeopardy.
I am spending my Sunday afternoon watching four of the top five teams in the NBA compete against each other at the highest level. These teams are playing in front of packed houses with playoff atmospheres. So, I started wondering what the Hawks can do to reach the next level.
I like this Hawks team, but honestly the ceiling for this team is probably winning a playoff series this year. After this year, things will change. Look what happened yesterday when Mike Bibby was out of action. The Hawks were thumped at home by the Los Angeles Clippers.
Every NBA fan is excited about the 2010 off season. Scenarios for 2010 are talked about daily on NBA blogs and in mainstream NBA coverage. What can the Hawks do to get ready for the vaunted free agent Class of 2010?
Here is my solution. Forget about trying to land Lebron, D. Wade, or Bosh in 2010. Make a trade now that will set you up for the next 4 years. I went to ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine to see what I can do to help GM Rick Sund and the Hawks.
Rick Sund should call the Denver Nuggets and offer them this trade: Josh Smith, Acie Law, and Speedy Claxton for Carmelo Anthony and Anthony Carter. The trade machine allowed the deal, but I think Josh Smith would have to approve it. Would getting away from home and Mike Woodson be enticing enough?
What are the benefits for the Hawks? This trade jumps the Hawks up on the NBA talent scale. Their starting line up for this year’s playoffs would be Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, Carmelo, Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia.
In a playoff series with days off, that lineup has a legitimate chance to beat Boston, Cleveland, or Orlando. Horford can fill his natural position of power forward. The Hawks would then have a number one offensive option to pair up with Joe Johnson, who is one of the best all around players in the NBA. This trade might even encourage Bibby to re-sign with Atlanta for less money.
What are the benefits for the Nuggets? Because of injuries or other reasons, Carmelo’s stats are down across the board. He still has four years left on his deal with Denver, but the Nuggets have Linas Kleiza waiting in the wings.
This trade would make the Nuggets Chauncey Billups’ team to run. That is a good thing for the Nuggets. They would lose Melo’s scoring, but they would add a dynamic, young player in Josh Smith. The great thing about Smith is that his contract is very manageable.
What are the benefits for the principal players—Melo and J-Smoove? Melo moves to a great city. He would instantly be the biggest sports star in Atlanta. That means more exposure for the Hawks, but it also means that Melo has a chance to be a perennial all star in the Eastern Conference. J-Smoove gets to move away from Coach Mike Woodson and play in a more up tempo style with the Nuggets.
This trade seems to benefit everyone involved. The Nuggets even get Speedy Claxton’s expiring contract and a young back up point guard in the deal. Acie probably would be better in an up tempo style as well.
Undoubtedly, this kind of blockbuster trade will never be attempted by the Hawks. Sund seems pretty conservative plus the Hawks’ ownership quagmire is well documented. Maybe I am just dreaming about Carmelo and the Hawks playing big games on Sunday afternoons on ABC. Philips Arena would be rocking.
While getting ready to watch the Hawks play the Bobcats, I am thinking about the current state of the Atlanta Hawks as we approach the All Star Break. This team is playoff ready and primed for a great second half of the season.
The Hawks are 28-20 and second in the Southeast Conference. I am predicting 3 wins and 1 loss in their four games before the break. The Hawk will beat Charlotte, the Clippers, and the Wizards, but lose at Detroit next Wednesday night. That will make them 31-21 at the All Star Break. With all of their injuries and tough early schedule, the Hawks are one of the surprise teams in the NBA.
The season has been a roller coaster ride for Hawks’ fans. The early season success raised expectations, but there have been some low points including a massacre at first place Orlando. When this team is healthy during the 2nd half of the season, there should be some great moments.
Here are my two goals for the team for the rest of the season. First, win 50 games. Secondly, earn the 4th or the 5th seed in the Eastern conference playoffs. Going into the final 30 games of the season, working to reach those marks has to be the mind set of this team.
Winning 50 would be great, but the playoff seeding is ultimately more important. I argue that the Hawks roster is better suited for playoff basketball than for the NBA regular season. This is not a run and gun, up and down basketball team. Playing on back to back nights or 4 games in 5 nights kills the Hawks because of their lack of depth. Rick Sund can sing the praises of Acie Law and Solo Jones, but they are too young and are not ready for prime time. In fact, the conventional wisdom that this is a young basketball team is dead wrong.
In the playoffs, Coach Woodson’s rotation is going to get shorter. He probably will go with an 8-man rotation. Of those guys, Bibby, JJ, Mo Evans, Flip, and Zaza are older, veteran players with lots of mileage on their legs. Marvin Williams and Josh Smith each have been in the league over three years. These guys are not young by NBA standards. Al Horford is the only guy I would call young and he is a four year college guy. If Smith develops the same maturity level as Marvin or “the Boss”, the Hawks are a mature and experienced group headed into the playoffs.
The other great thing about the first round of the NBA playoffs is that there are days off between games. My concern is that Bibby and Joe are logging too many minutes. Because of the off days, they should be able to play without worrying about getting tired. The Hawks have played a ton of close games this year and more often than not Bibby has been the guy that has knocked down clutch jump shots down in the clutch. He has made numerous big 3 point shots this year.
Bibby and Marvin Williams will be playing for contracts. That fact alone helps the Hawks in the playoffs. Do not underestimate the importance of money to these guys. The next contract is Bibby’s last. Marvin’s contract will make him a journeyman or a starter for the next several years. Marvin has been having his best season of his career this year. I think it is because he is not worried about Josh Childress looming as his back up.
Mo Evans’ role has been to come off the bench and Evans has not really played as well as I expected him to play this year. Without someone competing for his job, Marvin has been more relaxed and played better. His floor game with rebounding and passing has been consistently good all season. He played very hard in Wednesday night’s big win on the road versus Minnesota.
What are the variables for the Hawks in the playoffs? There are two. Can Mo Evans and Flip Murray provide offense of the bench? These guys started off hot, but cooled off in the month of January. Flip is coming back around, but Mo Evans has not been shooting the 3 point shot that well. If he can make 3’s and guard Tayshaun Prince or Paul Pierce, the Hawks can advance deep into the playoffs.
The second wild card is Josh Smith. You either love Smith or you hate him. He dunked so hard over Steve Nash two weeks ago that the Philips Arena crowd lost their minds. The replay itself inspired oohs and aahs. My problem with Smith (I wrote about this extensively last summer in this blog) is that for every positive thing he does on the court, he commits one or two errors. Plus, the scrunched up, complaining face that he makes is terribly annoying. When you are frustrated as a fan, imagine how frustrated Mike Woodson is coaching the talented, but erratic J-Smoove.
If Smith will rebound, block shots, stop his man from beating him off the dribble, and finish in transition, the Hawks are a scary team. They are a team that can reach the Eastern Conference Finals. If Smith settles for long jump shots, turns the ball over, makes lackadaisical passes, scowls at the officials, and ignores Coach Woodson, the Hawks can get beaten in the first round by Detroit or Miami. No matter what happens-- Hawks’ fans are going to have a blast this spring watching this “old” team in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Hawks invited some Hawks’ bloggers to attend last Sunday night’s game with the Phoenix Suns. Yes, you read that sentence correctly. They actually invited bloggers to the party! I would have liked to be a fly on the wall in that meeting:
-Well, we have done this in the past.
-Yeah, but bloggers? Can anything good come from this? Put them up in the rafters.
And we want Rick (GM Rick Sund) to spend 30 minutes answering their questions.
-(Very long pause followed by an expletive) Are you kidding me? These guys might start a web site saying how Rick shouldn’t have signed Koncak or let Dominique go. They might even blame him for not drafting Chris Paul for crying out loud.
-C’mon. Bloggers are the future of NBA coverage. Why do you think guys are playing harder than ever before? These guys watch mid-week games between us and the Clippers.
-Okay, we will do it. Break it to Rick gently. Lock up the alcohol, the A-Team dancers, and Woody’s play sheet. And be nice.
-How do we know when not to be nice?
-You won’t know, I will let you know. (Okay that last part was Dalton from Roadhouse, but you get the idea.
It turns out that the group of about 10 bloggers that showed up representing blogs principally devoted to the Hawks looked just like a group of young sports journalists. You had the cool guys with the cool blog name, the Daryl Morey stat guy (when he asked a question I thought Rick Sund’s head was going to explode), the hip Obama blogger who had partied for a week straight at the Inauguration, the sports loving woman writer (she actually scored a quick interview with O.J. Mayo earlier this year and had the guts to write about Mike Bibby missing lay-ups), the Al Horford jersey guy, and some others. One of my favorite writers from Playoff Hawks was not in attendance. He loves the Hawks, but he is very descriptive if you know what I mean (please no swearing was one of the rules).
The best part of the night was before the game when GM Rick Sund was holding court in a semi-circle of these eager, intrepid columnists with their notebooks and spiral-bound tablets taking copious notes. Sund started off the session with an overview of the season so far, and he followed with his take on the Hawks ability to reach several team goals.
Then, he opened up the session for questions. Typically, he answered some, he dodged some, he told some anecdotes, and he went off the record with some stuff. I wanted to raise my hand and just let him know that “off the record” rules do not really apply to bloggers. That is what makes them so fun and so dangerous!
You have to give it to Sund. He was cordial and candid. It is easy to see how these guys operate and handle the media. He almost had me convinced that Al Horford’s best position is center. He threw out Red Auerbach and Dave Cowens. I might have been the only other person there old enough to recognize those names. Supposedly, my high school and college coach know Sund from his days at Ohio University and in Southern Ohio. I did not bring that up, but he does remind me of an old school college coach.
Unfortunately, the Hawks lost a close game to the Suns. Our blogger suite was cheering, moaning, and groaning about the usual stuff with this team. Poor shot selection down the stretch, terrible turnovers, poor defensive rotations, and unimaginative offensive sets in the last 5 minutes of the game.
Last night, the Hawks compounded the grief by getting drilled by the Heat in a game that was not even close. Wade dominated. The Heat and the Pistons are gaining ground fast, but I had so much fun at “Hawks Blogger Night” that I could not muster up the normal vitriol to write a blog about the selfish play. I am sure it will wear off, but for right now my good will goes out to the Hawks and GM Rick Sund.
With the NBA All-Star Game starters ready to be announced tonight on TNT, I was thinking about what I want to see happen for the Atlanta Hawks in 2009. I wish…
…that two Hawks are selected by the coaching staff as All-Stars. Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson deserve to be on this team. Super Joe is one of the best all around players in the Association. Bibby has clearly been one of the top two point guards in the Eastern Conference. It is a travesty if Rajon Rondo makes this team and not Bibby.
…that Acie Law would play better. Bibby is playing way too many minutes. Hawks need to play Acie more, draft a point guard, find someone in the D-League, or make a trade. The problem is that the only valuable asset right now might be the rights to Josh Childress. Think outside the box. I mean Jose Barea is playing solid minutes for Dallas.
…that the Hawks end the season with the 4th seed in the playoffs and play Chicago in the first round. Hawks might sweep the Bulls. Clearly, the Hawks do not want to play New Jersey. The Bucks have a big man inside, Richard Jefferson, and Michael Redd (if he does not get traded to Cleveland). Redd and Jefferson could outplay Super Joe and J-Smooth.
…the Hawks would find a low post scoring presence. Randolph Morris is not the answer. The Hawks need someone that can post up and draw a double team. I know there aren’t that many guys out there that can do that.
…the team welcomes Childress back to Atlanta. Supposedly, J-Chill is in the States having surgery for a sports hernia. You just know this guy is homesick and wants to come back. You know he has been humbled by the experience. Make it easy for him to come back to Atlanta. The fans would welcome him back. Then, over the summer, you might be able to package him with Acie Law for a point guard—Earl Watson?
…that the Hawks are taken over by a single, dominant voice at the ownership level. Solve all this crazy Belkin versus the Atlanta Spirit Group nonsense. We need a kinder, gentler version of Mark Cuban.
…that Mike Woodson can figure out a way to beat Lawrence Frank’s New Jersey Nets. Why does Devin Harris dominate the Hawks?
…that Mark Price did not have to sit way in the back row of the coaches’ section. Price should be a bigger factor and maybe up on the bench in 2009-2010.
…that the Hawks would re-sign Mike Bibby, get a younger big man like Leon Powe or Big Baby Davis, change the color scheme of their home court, and take away Speedy Claxton’s electronic access card to Philips Arena.
This week was the most important week of the 2008-2009 regular season for the Atlanta Hawks. They played a home and home series against the Orlando Magic who had a small lead on the Hawks in the Southeast Division. A split or a Hawks’ sweep of the week would have been huge. The exact opposite happened. The Magic obliterated the Hawks last night in one of the worst losses of the Mike Woodson’s coaching tenure.
I watched the tip ready to write an article about how the Hawks bounced back with a win after the loss to the Magic on Wednesday night. About how they came together as a team and played with pride. Instead, I was making a list of examples of how monumentally bad the Hawks performed in this game.
There were the ridiculous technical fouls on Woodson, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith. Another technical foul was called for delay of game because reserve center Solomon Jones did not have his jersey tucked in when he came on the floor.
The Hawks could not enter the ball on a couple of out of bounds underneath plays. They used up all their extra time-outs in the first quarter. J.J. Redick was scoring for Orlando. C’mon man! Othello Hunter played big minutes. It was so bad that Dominique was talking about how good a finisher Acie Law is in the paint.
I was frustrated and angry at halftime. The score was 71-33 for crying out loud. My face looked like the older cooler’s face (Sam Elliot’s character) in the movie Roadhouse when he gets kicked in the knee. I thought Hawks’ play-by-play man Bob Rathbun’s head might explode, but then a funny thing happened. At the start of the 2nd half, Bibby, Joe, and J-Smooth were at half court sharing a laugh.
What could they have been laughing at? Maybe, they were laughing at how viciously Dwight Howard blocked Josh Smith’s shot into the stands in the early moments of the game. Maybe, they were laughing because they have lost 10 out of there last 13 on the road.
It was even more deflating midway through the 3rd quarter when Al Horford was injured and no teammates came over to help him up or ask him if he was okay. I needed an NFL films sound byte of Vince Lombardi yelling, “What the hell’s going on out there!” There is something rotten in Hawks’ country.
With Josh Smith back in the lineup, you would think the Hawks would be playing better than they were earlier in the season, but they clearly are not. Zaza is sick and Marvin Williams is injured. Coach Woodson has no confidence in his bench.
I thought these Hawks might be contenders. I thought this was a new era. Are these the same old Hawks? With a month or so until the All-Star break, the Hawks are at a crossroads. Toronto, Detroit, and Miami are playing better and are catching up in the standings. Tomorrow’s game against the 76ers almost feels like an early season must win game—a big win at home can get this team moving in the right direction.
I know, I know, you probably are not supposed to surf the internet at work, but during a quick break in the action today, I checked out NBA.com. The lead story was about the great match-ups in tonight’s action, and the main focus was the Hawks’ game against the first place Magic.
Hawks’ fans are starting to believe the hype. Philips Arena (a.k.a the Highlight Factory) was loud at the start of the game, but the Hawks quickly fell behind the Magic. Slow starts to games have been a trend for the Hawks all season. The Magic played last night, but the Hawks looked like the team playing back-to-back games. They were out of rhythm on offense and they were slow to react on the defensive end of the floor.
The slow start to tonight’s game had to be a result of the game plan. I have a vision of Coach Woodson in his pre-game points of emphasis talking about how you have to control the tempo to beat the Magic. The problem is the Hawks are a below average half court offensive team. Their half court offense is very easy to guard for opposing teams. The offensive sets are unimaginative and predictable.
You can see this in the way they often struggle to score in the final possessions of a close game. Giving the basketball to Joe Johnson at the top of the floor only works so many times. It is true that the Magic are more athletic, play faster, and love the up tempo game, but the Hawks have to play to their strengths.
Dwight Howard controlled the paint and the Magic did not have to double team Horford in the post (the Magic did double Joe Johnson a couple of times.) That means that Super Joe, Bibby, and Marvin Williams did not have their normal open looks from 3-point range. When the Hawks were down by 20 at the beginning of the 4th quarter, they started pushing the ball in transition. Even though they lost the game, pushing the ball fueled their comeback run.
Here are five quick observations about tonight’s game:
1. The Hawks free throw shooting woes have to be a concern for Coach Mike Woodson. They threw away the “Vince Carter buzzer beater game” with an abysmal showing from the line. Tonight, the Hawks missed their first three free throws of the game and ended up shooting around 50% from the line. In a four point game, those easy points are critical. Also, when the Hawks play a team above them in the standings, they have to make every possession count.
2. Dwight Howard is the most dominant, physical force in the NBA. Al “the Boss” Horford fought Howard all night long, but he is just not big or strong enough. Whenever Howard goes to the foul line, you can hear the whispers from the crowd and the television audience about how broad his shoulders are. He really does look like a Superman.
3. The Hawks really missed the presence of Zaza Pachulia. Zaza missed the game with the flu. He has a big body to lean on Howard. The drop off to the other post reserves, Solomon Jones and Randolph Morris, is steep. Jones hits the offensive boards hard, but he was totally over matched by Howard inside. You somehow have to push Howard off the low block and make him used a post move to score. Howard’s dunking and rebounding killed the Hawks.
4. I was surprised that in the last two minutes of the game, Stan Van Gundy called set plays for Rashad Lewis to post up Josh Smith on the left wing area. That must be a result of Howard’s struggles at the free throw line. Lewis converted a basket and made two foul shots, but Smith was able to stop him on the next two possessions. Smith started a fast break that ended in a heart breaking missed lay up from Bibby.
5. Can the Hawks handle their early season success? The Hawks’ emergence in the East is shaping up to be one of the best stories in the NBA. However, the Hawks are showing some chinks in their armor. Their shot selection has been questionable. Outside of Horford, hustle plays are non-existent. Watch the Hawks’ time-outs. Guys are not in the huddle listening to Coach Woodson or each other. The focus has to be on winning games and not who gets the credit.
Tonight, the Magic looked like the deeper and better team. They even managed a couple of baskets from J.J. Reddick! However, the great thing about college and pro basketball is that you have the chance to play again soon and make up for a bad performance. To beat the elite teams, the Hawks have to come together as a team. They have to use this loss as motivation for another big game against the Magic on Friday night.
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