Watching the NBA playoffs virtually every night for the past six weeks gives you so many options for topics to discuss. I wish I had a forum like sports talk radio hosts to talk about everything going on in the NBA and the world of sports.
Since the Atlanta Hawks were swept out of the playoffs, I have been following several Hawks analysts on blogs, Twitter, and the Hawks team web site. It is an exciting time to be a Hawks fan.
A huge area of concern for most Hawks’ fans is the Zaza Pachulia question. Should the Hawks resign Zaza or should Rick Sund use Zaza’s money and try to make a splash on the free agent market?
I am torn because I still remember how fired up I was when the Hawks beat the Celtics in Game 6 of the 2008 playoffs. Heck, I even named my Hawks blog after the fiery big man from Georgia. However, after seeing how just how huge the talent gap is between the Hawks and the Celtics, Magic, and Cavs, I know that the Hawks have to upgrade at this position.
You have to assume that Sund already has a certain amount of money allocated to resign Zaza. Sund can make the choice between either upgrading the offense or strengthening the defense. It kind of hurts to say this, but here are two guys that I would rather have on the Hawks’ roster than Zaza:
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers. The 6’10” 260 pounder center averaged 8 points and 7 rebounds per game. He averaged 11 more minutes per game than Zaza in 2008-2009. Varejao has a player option and can opt out of his contract with the Cavaliers and become an unrestricted free agent.
Remember just last year, he sat out until early December as a restricted free agent when the Cavs did not offer him a multi-year deal. Finally, the New Orleans Hornets signed him to an offer sheet and the Cavs matched the contract the next day. He signed for 2 years and 11.1 million with a player option for next year for 6.2 million.
If I were him, I think I can make more on the open market even in the very tough NBA economy. He played in every game for the Cavs and started about half the games. He played about 30 minutes a game. His statistics do not wow anyone, but this guy has a ton of intangibles.
He probably is near the top in charges taken in the NBA every year. He is very good defending out on the floor (unless he has to guard a perimeter guy like Rashard Lewis) and he is good finishing at the rim out of the high screen and roll. The Hawks are weak in both of those areas.
Varejao is a better defender than Al Horford is right now. If the Hawks can re-sign Marvin Williams, Varejao can be the first post guy off the bench. He also would allow Coach Mike Woodson more flexibility in dealing with the volatile Josh Smith. When Smith acts up, Varejao can start and play starter minutes. Sadly, Zaza cannot. At least not on a winning or playoff caliber team.
He is an upgrade over Zaza in almost every area. He is quicker, a better shot blocker, rebounder, and he is better scoring around the basket in traffic. Zaza is a better perimeter shooter, but neither one of these guys should be allowed to shoot outside very often.
Maybe the best thing that excites me as a Hawks fan is the idea of Varejao and Horford playing together. Varejao would free up Horford from guarding the other team’s best inside player and allow Big Al to concentrate on his offensive game. They could dominate the boards at both ends.
Lastly, Varejao’s energy would fire up the home crowd. He has personality and toughness. In Cleveland, there are thousands of fans every night that wear the Varejao wigs to home games. As far as dollars, Varejao may have some solid offers, but if two years ago is an indication, teams are not willing to come up with long term dollars for a guy that cannot score. I think he is worth a 3 year deal worth 20-24 million. I have to think Zaza is looking for a 4 year deal.
Brandon Bass, Dallas Mavericks. The 6’8” 240 pound third year guy from LSU fills a totally different need for the Hawks. He played about the same minutes as Zaza last year and scored a few more points, but he is an undersized forward.
He is very athletic and his offensive game is way better than Zaza and Varejao added together. He would play a lot more minutes in a Hawks uniform. For the Mavs, he basically plays minutes behind Dirk Nowitzki or when the Mavs go to a small lineup with Dirk at the five spot.
In the playoffs, Mavs’ coach Rick Carlisle was running isolation plays for Bass on the low block. The Hawks do not have any player on the roster that can score on isolation post ups like Bass. Read that line again. Yeah, the Hawks are weak on the post. Horford can make a big jump offensively this summer, but if I needed a basket at the end of the game today I would go to Bass before Horford.
Bass is athletic enough to make up for his lack of size, but I would be concerned about his rebounding and defense. Bass went to LSU so coming to Atlanta and SEC country might appeal to him. Bass might even come cheaper than Pachulia or Varejao.
Atlanta Hawks new General Manager Rick Sund had it very easy last off season. He faced a few tough decisions, but nothing like this summer. The Hawks are at a crossroads in a strange NBA world and Sund is the guy riding in the back seat that ultimately is going to decide which road the Hawks take.
The Hawks could choose correctly and take the road toward being a consistent winner, or they could take the road back to a 15 win team. Nobody wants that. The importance of this off season for the Hawks franchise cannot be overstated. Both draft picks have to make this team. The talent level at the end of the bench is awful. Here is a list of 10 things Sund should do this summer:
1. Decide Coach Mike Woodson’s fate by June 1. If you let Woodson go, the new coach needs draft day input. By almost all measurements, Woodson deserves a contract extension. However, if Sund wanted to shake this team up he could look for a new head coach who would bring in his own entourage of assistants, strength guys, and program.
The problem is the money. The same old names have been mentioned like Jeff Van Gundy and Avery Johnson, even a coach like Billy Donovan or Tubby Smith is going to demand north of 3 million per year. If you fire Woodson, here are two more economical options Sam Mitchell or Kelvin Sampson.
2. Take a point guard or perimeter player with the 19th pick. There is only one upper tier player in this draft and that is Blake Griffin. However, there are going to be solid players when the Hawks pick. I think you go point guard here, but definitely go perimeter. I like Johnny Flynn from Syracuse. The question probably is does he know anything about playing man to man defense. Every college player will be shocked by NBA attention to defensive detail, so do not worry about this.
3. Find a hidden gem of a player with the 49th pick. If I am not mistaken, Sund took Robert Swift. I am worried that he takes a big in the first round that bombs (BJ Mullens, anyone). Take the big man in this spot. There will be guys with size left. You can find a big in the 2nd round that can be an impact player—Anderson Varejao, Carlos Boozer, and Big Baby Davis to name a few. Both draft picks have to make the roster.
4. Give Joe Johnson an extension. Unless you think that D-Wade, Bosh, or another tier 1 player will sign here in Summer 2010, you have to give Super Joe an extension. This guy is a warrior. He led the NBA in minutes played. He has an all around game and he can carry you in a playoff series—last year—and he is still young. I offer him 3 years and 45 million dollars.
5. Trade Josh Smith. The time has come to choose between Smith and Joe Johnson. I choose Johnson. Smith is a potential all star, but he is also a potential team and coach killer. The funny part is that in the NBA universe Smith’s contract makes him a bargain. You can get value for him. You might have to throw in the rights to Josh Childress (try to throw in Acie Law and Speedy Claxton’s expiring contract.) I think Detroit would make a deal to get some cap space for 2010. You might be able to get Tayshaun Prince and Will Bynum for Smith, Childress, and Law.
6. Hold off on making Mike Bibby an offer. I have so much respect for Bibby and the way he played this year. He might have been the Hawks’ MVP for the regular season, but he is so limited defensively that the Hawks should move in another direction. My plan for the point guard position is in three parts: draft a point guard, sign Jason Kidd to a two year deal, and trade Acie Law. Yes, Kidd is old, but he is not going to retire. He is big, runs a team, and guards better than Bibby. The financial commitment to Kidd would be less than to say Andre Miller or Raymond Felton.
7. Let Zaza Pachulia go. Zaza brings effort and intensity, but is he worth what you are going to have to pay him. No. I think Sund should use Zaza’s money on a more productive and versatile player. I like some of the free agents that are performing in the playoffs. For the same money or even less, you could go after Chris Anderson, Big Baby, Marcin Gortat, or Antonio McDyess. I think McDyess would look great beside Horford in a lineup. Plus, can you image Philips Arena going nuts for the Birdman Anderson? I mean this is the Hawks!
8. Re-sign Flip Murray in late July. I want to wait and see if there is a market for Murray. He played great this season off the bench and was vital to the Hawks’ 10 win improvement this year. But, do not forget he was probably out of the NBA if not for Sund. Wait and you might be able to get him for another one year deal, but double or even triple his money.
9. Re-sign Marvin Williams. Make Williams a solid qualifying offer. Marvin is never going to live up to his draft status or the fact that he is not Chris Paul, but he is solid NBA scorer. I thought he played harder than ever before this season on the defensive end. Of course, it is kind of a contract year. Sund already has a blue print for what to do with Marvin after the Childress affair last summer.
10. Convince Childress to come back. I actually think you can argue that Childress’ basketball skills probably eroded by playing in Greece. He has to be home sick and miss playing games in front of 15,000 people a night. He still is not a starter in the league and does not get starter money. The Hawks have the leverage and should offer something like 3 years, 21 million.
What shape do those moves leave the Hawks in for next year? Well, let’s just say we have to trade the rights to Josh Childress to make a Smith deal happen. Also, I have wanted Ron Artest for the Hawks, but I am going to take Chris Anderson instead. That leaves the Hawks with a deeper perimeter team and very thin on big men. The 49th pick has to be a big man. Then, keep Solomon Jones for a few million and here is your roster:
Jason Kidd, Joe Johnson, Tayshaun Prince, Al Horford, Chris Anderson, Johnny Flynn, Flip Murray, Maurice Evans, Marvin Williams, Solomon Jones, Tyler Hansborough (49th pick), Mario West
1. Mo and Flip have to play big. If Marvin Williams does not play, the Hawks are going with a 7 man rotation. Mo in the starting line up and Flip off the bench. These guys were picked up in August by GM Rick Sund and few in this town paid any attention (check my blog I was calling for the Evans signing before he signed). The combination is averaging almost 15 ppg in this series. Tonight, they both need to score in double figures.
2. The Hawks have to get to the foul line and convert. A high number of free throw attempts means that you are getting shots in the paint either on drives to the basket, transition cuts, or post moves. Atlanta is averaging 24 attempts per game from the line on 71% shooting. They need to get to the foul line 35 times tonight and shoot a high percentage.
3. Mike Bibby has to get more open 3 point shot attempts.. He is attempting under 5 shots per game from 3 point land in this playoff series. I do not think he is being aggressive enough on offensive end. Granted the Heat are keying on him with Mario Chalmers and Chalmers does not ever have to double team anyone in the post. The Hawks need to look for Bibby on quick kick outs after offensive rebounds. Bibby must be more aggressive and call his own number more tonight.
4. Al Horford must step up. Horford is highly respected in basketball circles all around the country. He is looked at as the next great power forward for USA basketball. The problem is that Jermaine O’Neal has exposed him as an under sized center who has trouble guarding a bigger player. Horford has to get physical on the offensive end. He has to attack the basket. He has to match Zaza Pachulia’s energy. Horford is averaging 2 offensive rebounds per game in this series. Tonight, he needs to man up and get about 6 offensive rebounds and convert them into scores.
5. Will the real Joe Johnson please stand up? Forget about his low scoring numbers. In the regular season, Super Joe averaged almost 6 assists versus 2.5 turnovers per game. Those numbers are close to being reversed against the Heat. Johnson needs to be a playmaker and let the offense come to him. When the Heat double him on the perimeter, he needs to attack the double and create open shots for teammates. The Hawks bigs, especially Josh Smith and Horford, need to cut to open areas and to the basket for easy scores. I have a great feeling the JJ is going to play his best game of the series tonight and lead the Hawks to a 3-2 series advantage.
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