As the Hawks and their fans wait for the two Joshes to resign with the team, other Eastern Conference teams are getting better and passing by the Hawks. Last Monday, the Hawks were a marginal playoff contender for 2008-2009. Today, they are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in as other teams make solid roster and coaching moves.
In the NBA Eastern Conference, there are 15 teams in 3 divisions. 8 of those teams make the playoffs. In 2008, the Atlanta Hawks earned a playoff berth with solid play down the stretch, but they still finished under .500 for the regular season. A healthy and productive full season from Mike Bibby will help, but this off season the Eastern landscape is rapidly changing. At least three teams are going to challenge Atlanta for that last playoff spot. The Heat and Bulls are better than the Hawks, and Charlotte will challenge for a playoff berth.
Charlotte definitely will resign Emeka Okafor. They added DJ Augustin who seems to playing very well in the Orlando Summer League. Possibly, the crazy mustache of Adam Morrison could make an appearance this year after losing last year to injury. The Bobcats’ roster is better, but the big improvement will come from Larry Brown. It usually takes a year for Brown to turn around a team, but look for him to get the Bobcats very close to .500 next year. Coach Brown travels around like a virus, but no one can argue that he does not make his team much better. The Bobcats will play harder and smarter next year.
Chicago drafted Derrick Rose and hired a new head coach Vinny Del Negro. Adding Derrick Rose gives the Bulls a bigger point guard with scary athleticism. Sure, Rose will have to learn on-the-job, but his quickness, size, and ability to penetrate into the lane are better than Kirk Heinrich. Playing off the ball could give Heinrich the chance to find his shooting stroke from the 2007 season. What style of play Del Negro and his coaches employ will be important for the Bulls. He has the players to run up and down like Phoenix and if Del Negro can mix in some defense the Bulls will be much improved. The Bulls still lack a proven inside scorer, but if they play a wide open style and try to out score teams in the East, the post game becomes less of a factor. The scary part for Atlanta fans is that the Bulls probably are not done making moves. They have tradable assets in Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni.
The most improved team in the East next year will be the Miami Heat. The Heat are about to add Tyronn Lue to upgrade the point guard position. Michael Beasley is in the mix for a starting spot. They signed James Jones, a solid three point shooter to stretch the defense. It is possible that Alonzo Mourning could come back to give them some depth and energy off the bench. Dwayne Wade is back and healthy. If Wade attacks the basket like he did before the injury, he is clearly a top 5 player in the Eastern Conference. He is better than any player on the Hawks. The Heat have a new unproven coach in Eric Spoelstra, but he is not unknown to the players. Clearly, he must have a great relationship with Wade and in the NBA that is 80% of the battle. Spoelstra will bring passion and energy, but he probably is not a difference maker. The key is that Pat Riley hand-picked him and Riley will make every effort to make this Heat roster good enough for Spoelstra to succeed.
Resigning the Joshes seems like a fore gone conclusion for the Hawks. Still there is a conflict between Horford and Josh Smith playing the same position. No matter what anyone says J-Smooth is not a small forward. He cannot guard the ball or consistently make perimeter shots. If Rick Sund keeps the Joshes, there still are moves that can be made to improve the roster. Let’s hope that the waiting this month is not the hardest part, and the Hawks stay competitive in 2008-2009.
Well, in 48 hours, fans of the Atlanta Hawks will know what the Hawks need to do to improve and solidify their roster for 2008-2009. Tonight, everyone finds out what the salary cap is for next year and that determines how much money teams can offer the remaining NBA free agents. Rick Sund is doing the right thing and waiting to see what happens with the two Joshes. Childress needs to be in a Hawks uniform next year, but the rumors of other teams interest in him have to be exaggerated. Nobody thinks that he is a starter in the NBA. He brings great intangibles to the game, but he cannot stretch the court or create his own shot. Yes, he has a great shooting percentage, but nearly all of his shots are layups and dunks. Josh Smith would be a big loss, but not a catastrophic loss for this team. Losing J-Smooth frees up money for Sund to go after other players that are a better fit for the Hawks roster and better for the team financially. The next two years’ crop of free agents are much better than this years’ group. By losing Josh Smith, the Hawks actually are in a better situation to land a true superstar in 2009 or 2010.
Here are a couple of scenarios that could play out for the Hawks in the next 24 to 48 hours:
1. Philadelphia offers Josh Smith a five year contract worth $66 million. The Hawks have seven days to match. That also means the Hawks have seven days to pursue other free agents. The three guys that could replace Josh Smith are Corey Magette, Andre Iguodala, and Monta Ellis. Ellis and Iguodala are restricted free agents. Their respective teams can match any offers. Iguodala makes so much sense. The 76ers probably do not want to pay both Josh Smith and Iguodala for the next 5 years. The Hawks can get Iguodala. He gives the Hawks a perimeter slasher that can create for other teammates. He averaged more points, minutes, and steals than J-Smooth. Plus, down the stretch of clutch games, Iguodala is better. He was the 76ers go to player. Maggette is a great fit for Atlanta. He is in a precarious position of signing for one year for under $7 million. He could get hurt next year and be in real limbo. Offer Maggette a 2 year deal worth 16 million. That gives him some security and freedom. That offer also positions the Hawks for financial flexibility in 2010.
2. Josh Childress signs with Golden State or some other Western Conference team to be a 6th to 8th man. The market for Childress cannot be that strong. Hawks should match the offer, but they should not over pay. Some possible replacements for Childress are James Posey, Mickael Pietrus, Jarvis Hayes, and Sasha Vujacic. All of these guys are available for less money than Childress. Pietrus is intriguing because he shoots the 3 point shot very well, he has great size, and he is a good defender. James Posey would be perfect, but he can determine where he wants to go. Posey might listen to a 3 year deal worth $15 million. Vujcacic is a young guy with lots of potential as a shooter and scorer. He would come off the bench for Atlanta on the perimeter. The Hawks would have a four guard rotation of Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Sasha, and Marvin Williams. Keep Marvin happy with a starting role, but you could motivate him with more bench time if he does not play defense.
3. Josh Smith and Josh Childress receive no major offers from other teams. The Hawks negotiate extensions with both players. Treat the Joshes fairly. Look for another offer to Josh Smith like his October offer. Maybe, add another year to Childress’ contract with a percentage raise. If you look at what has happened to Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in the year since they turned down long term extensions, you might convince Josh Smith to sign.
What happens with the Joshes determines what the Hawks and Rick Sund can do to get better for next year. There are a couple of other guys that the Hawks should be looking at over the next week. Kurt Thomas is a player that could start and be a nice complement to Al Horford. He can guard a bigger player and he can make the perimeter jump shot. Thomas can keep the big double team in the post off Horford. This might sound crazy, but the Hawks should take a long look at Kwame Brown. He is an unrestricted free agent. The Hawks might be able to get him for cheap to play along Horford. Kwame might be willing to come to Atlanta, because of a chance to start. Here are some possible starting line-ups to think about for 2008-2009:
Hawks – Bibby, Johnson, Magette, Horford, Kwame
Hawks – Bibby, Johnson, Iguodala, Horford, Kurt Thomas
Rick Sund and the Atlanta Hawks need to hire another assistant coach. I would have argued last week that keeping both Larry Drew and Bob Bender is a mistake, but Rick Sund already has crossed that bridge. David Fizdale probably should have been kept and let one of the other guys go. Now, the Hawks need a coach to replace Fizdale. I had some other coaches--older guys with lots of NBA experience that could have helped Coach Woodson with strategy, X’s and O’s, maybe end of game situations--in mind to replace Drew and Bender. That column now is in the trash. Maybe later this year, I will look back and wish I would have posted that before Sund announced the decision. To replace Coach Fizdale, the Hawks need a younger guy with a proven track record of developing young talent. I combed the NBA coaching staffs of the most successful teams of this young century and found the perfect replacement on the San Antonio staff: Brett Brown.
You cannot underestimate what being on the Spurs staff means in terms of learning, experience, and understanding what it takes to win. Understanding the commitment needed to win in the NBA sounds like an old coaches’ cliché, but that statement is true and meaningful. What are the positives for hiring Brett Brown? He has spent seven seasons with the Spurs. Five seasons working in the critical player development area. Players who have developed during that time include Tony Parker and Manu Gnobili. Additionally, Brown has head coaching experience at the professional level. He coached with great success at the highest level in Australia and he is used to being apart of winning organizations. He also played for Rick Pitino in college, so he has a long pedigree of being around winning coaches.
The problem for the Hawks is that Brown probably will not leave San Antonio. However, he is a recently promoted assistant that might want to get away from Popovich in order to spread his wings a little. Winning with Atlanta is a way to improve his stock, so that he can return to the Spurs as the top assistant when Mike Budenholzer gets an NBA head coaching position in the next couple of seasons. Budenholzer clearly will succeed Popovich when he moves permanently to the front office like Pat Riley. That move seems likely in the next couple of years as Tim Duncan gets older. Brown could also position himself for the Hawks head coaching position in a couple of seasons, especially if Erik Spoelstra does well in Miami. That would open the door for some young, up and coming coaches to get opportunities. Rick Sund has to bring out his salesman skills and sell Brett Brown on this move. Upgrading the coaching staff is very important for 2008-2009 and Sund only has one chance to make the right hire.
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